K League 1 · Regular Season - 32
Jeonbuk Motors 3–2 Jeju United FC
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 05:00 UTC · Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Jeonju
Jeonbuk MotorsTeam 1672
Jeju United FCTeam 1519Match story
Jeonbuk Motors · draw · Jeju United FCBefore kick-off: 52% · 28% · 20%
Last reading, 90+10': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Tiago Orobó 32', 60'
- Kim Young-Bin 47'
- Emerson Negueba 45+9', 90+1' (pen)
We gave Jeonbuk Motors 52% to win: they did.
- 23'Kwon Gi-min 1413 0
Jeju United FC:Kwon Gi-min 1413 0 - Lee Dong-Jun 1783 +427'
Jeonbuk Motors:Lee Dong-Jun 1783 +4 - Tiago Orobó 1701 +48 assist Lee Yeong-jae 1687 +4332'
Jeonbuk Motors:Tiago Orobó 1701 +48 assist Lee Yeong-jae 1687 +43 - Seung-Woo Lee 1724 +6 for Lee Dong-Jun 1783 +445'
Jeonbuk Motors:Seung-Woo Lee 1724 +6 for Lee Dong-Jun 1783 +4 - 45+9'Emerson Negueba 1718 −10 (pen.)
Jeju United FC:Emerson Negueba 1718 −10 (pen.) - Kim Young-Bin 1743 +8 assist Lee Yeong-jae 1687 +4347'
Jeonbuk Motors:Kim Young-Bin 1743 +8 assist Lee Yeong-jae 1687 +43 - Tiago Orobó 1701 +48 assist Seung-Woo Lee 1724 +660'
Jeonbuk Motors:Tiago Orobó 1701 +48 assist Seung-Woo Lee 1724 +6 - 62'Eraldo Cinari 1634 −11* for Lee Chang-Min 1561 −5
Jeju United FC:Eraldo Cinari 1634 −11* for Lee Chang-Min 1561 −5 - 68'Rim Chang-Woo 1402 −14* for Park Chang-Jun 1184 −2
Jeju United FC:Rim Chang-Woo 1402 −14* for Park Chang-Jun 1184 −2 - 68'Choi Byung-Wook 1513 0 for Kwon Gi-min 1413 0
Jeju United FC:Choi Byung-Wook 1513 0 for Kwon Gi-min 1413 0 - 70'Kim Ryun-sung 1649 −4
Jeju United FC:Kim Ryun-sung 1649 −4 - Lee Sang-Myung 1525 −3* for Kim Tae-hyeon 1819 +773'
Jeonbuk Motors:Lee Sang-Myung 1525 −3* for Kim Tae-hyeon 1819 +7 - Cho Wi-Je 1637 +4 for João Gamboa 1709 +1174'
Jeonbuk Motors:Cho Wi-Je 1637 +4 for João Gamboa 1709 +11 - 74'Kim Shin-jin 1515 0 for Lee Kun-hee 1564 −1
Jeju United FC:Kim Shin-jin 1515 0 for Lee Kun-hee 1564 −1 - 74'Park Min-Jae 1432 −8* for Kim Ryun-sung 1649 −4
Jeju United FC:Park Min-Jae 1432 −8* for Kim Ryun-sung 1649 −4 - 81'Park Su-bin 1464 −1
Jeju United FC:Park Su-bin 1464 −1 - Kim Jin-Gyu 1786 −1 for Lee Yeong-jae 1687 +4383'
Jeonbuk Motors:Kim Jin-Gyu 1786 −1 for Lee Yeong-jae 1687 +43 - Vinicius Rodrigues Adelino Dos Santos 1642 0 for Italo Vargas 1721 +1688'
Jeonbuk Motors:Vinicius Rodrigues Adelino Dos Santos 1642 0 for Italo Vargas 1721 +16 - 90+1'Emerson Negueba 1718 −10 (pen.)
Jeju United FC:Emerson Negueba 1718 −10 (pen.) - Bruno Mota 1710 −2 for Tiago Orobó 1701 +4890+5'
Jeonbuk Motors:Bruno Mota 1710 −2 for Tiago Orobó 1701 +48
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 52% · 28% · 20%(Jeonbuk Motors · draw · Jeju United FC)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–2 had 2%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Jeonbuk Motors €703K, Jeju United FC €343K.
- K League 1: Song Bum-Keun was the highest-rated goalkeeper (1830).
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (K League 1): Jeonbuk Motors ranked #13 of 13, Jeju United FC #1.
- Jeonbuk Motors' expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.9 over 180 days.
- All 11 of Jeonbuk Motors' expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Jeonbuk Motors
5th in K League 1 · 44 pts from 31
- 14 OctLVissel Kobe AFC Champions League1735
- 9 OctLDaejeon Citizen K League 11722
- 20 SepDGwangju FC K League 11748
- 16 SepWKashiwa Reysol AFC Champions League1726
- 12 SepLFC Seoul K League 11722
Jeju United FC
4th in K League 1 · 46 pts from 31
- 10 OctLFC Seoul K League 11614
- 20 SepWGangwon FC K League 11580
- 12 SepDBucheon FC 1995 K League 11609
- 9 SepWGwangju FC K League 11563
- 5 SepDUlsan Hyundai FC K League 11591
Season outlook
From the K League 1 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeonbuk Motors | 44 /31 | 47.1 | 0% | 44% | 0% | 6th |
| Jeju United FC | 46 /31 | 48.2 | 0% | 53% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Jeonbuk Motors · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1653

Jeju United FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1565
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Jeonbuk Motors: balanced profile (how Jung-Yong Chung plays) · Jeju United FC: balanced profile (how Sergio Costa plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.