K League 1 · Relegation Group - 35
Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 05:00 UTC · Jeju World Cup Stadium, Seogwipo
Jeju United FC host Gwangju FC on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (K League 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Jeju United FC 48%, draw 27%, Gwangju FC 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Jeju United FC €391K, Gwangju FC €267K.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (K League 1): Jeju United FC rank #1 of 13, Gwangju FC #11.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Jeju United FC goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Jeju United FC 1575 · Gwangju FC 1495
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Jeju United FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1701
Gwangju FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Elite) · Elo 1592
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Jeju United FC
7th in K League 1 · 46 pts from 33
- 24 OctLIncheon United K League 11596
- 18 OctLJeonbuk Motors K League 11556
- 10 OctLFC Seoul K League 11614
- 20 SepWGangwon FC K League 11580
- 12 SepDBucheon FC 1995 K League 11609
Gwangju FC
12th in K League 1 · 21 pts from 33
- 24 OctWBucheon FC 1995 K League 11454
- 18 OctLDaejeon Citizen K League 11497
- 11 OctWUlsan Hyundai FC K League 11470
- 20 SepDJeonbuk Motors K League 11439
- 13 SepDFC Anyang K League 11383
Season outlook
From the K League 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeju United FC | 46 /33 | 52.9 | 0% | 21% | 0% | 6th |
| Gwangju FC | 21 /33 | 26.9 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Jeju United FC: balanced profile (how Sergio Costa plays) · Gwangju FC: balanced profile (how Jeong-kyu Lee plays)