Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 12
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 13:45 UTC · Chorten Arena, Bialystok
Jagiellonia host Wisla Plock on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Ekstraklasa); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Jagiellonia 54%, draw 26%, Wisla Plock 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Jagiellonia €1.1M, Wisla Plock €531K.
- Style contrast in attacking (Ekstraklasa): Jagiellonia rank #4 of 19, Wisla Plock #18.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Jagiellonia goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 2–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Jagiellonia 1785 · Wisla Plock 1659
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Jagiellonia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1840
Wisla Plock · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1843
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Jagiellonia
12th in Ekstraklasa · 12 pts from 10
- 18 OctLZaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa1817
- 15 OctWArarat-Armenia UEFA Europa League1801
- 10 OctLGornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa1812
- 20 SepLLegia Warszawa Ekstraklasa1811
- 16 SepLOlympiakos Piraeus UEFA Europa League1861
Wisla Plock
13th in Ekstraklasa · 11 pts from 9
- 9 OctLWieczysta Kraków Ekstraklasa1679
- 20 SepWZaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa1665
- 13 SepWCracovia Krakow Ekstraklasa1630
- 7 SepDPogon Szczecin Ekstraklasa1642
- 28 AugLKorona Kielce Ekstraklasa1633
Season outlook
From the Ekstraklasa simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 12 /10 | 48.0 | <1% | 12% | 2% | 6th |
| Wisla Plock | 11 /9 | 41.1 | 0% | 2% | 20% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Jagiellonia: possession-based (how Adrian Siemieniec plays) · Wisla Plock: balanced profile (how Adam Marcin Majewski plays)