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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 10

Jagiellonia 1–3 Gornik Zabrze

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 18:15 UTC · Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, Bialystok

Jagiellonia crestJagielloniaTeam 1792
1–3
Full time
HT 0–0
Gornik Zabrze crestGornik ZabrzeTeam 1841

Match story

Jagiellonia · draw · Gornik Zabrze

Before kick-off: 39% · 29% · 32%

Live chances: Jagiellonia 0%, draw 0%, Gornik Zabrze 100% at 90+14'1' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 39%, draw 29%, Gornik Zabrze 32%2' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 39%, draw 29%, Gornik Zabrze 32%3' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 39%, draw 29%, Gornik Zabrze 32%4' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 39%, draw 29%, Gornik Zabrze 32%5' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 39%, draw 29%, Gornik Zabrze 32%6' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 39%, draw 30%, Gornik Zabrze 32%7' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 39%, draw 30%, Gornik Zabrze 32%8' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 39%, draw 30%, Gornik Zabrze 32%9' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 38%, draw 30%, Gornik Zabrze 32%10' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 38%, draw 30%, Gornik Zabrze 31%11' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 38%, draw 30%, Gornik Zabrze 31%12' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 38%, draw 31%, Gornik Zabrze 31%13' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 38%, draw 31%, Gornik Zabrze 31%14' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 38%, draw 31%, Gornik Zabrze 31%15' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 38%, draw 31%, Gornik Zabrze 31%16' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 38%, draw 31%, Gornik Zabrze 31%17' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 38%, draw 31%, Gornik Zabrze 31%18' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 37%, draw 32%, Gornik Zabrze 31%19' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 37%, draw 32%, Gornik Zabrze 31%20' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 37%, draw 32%, Gornik Zabrze 31%21' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 37%, draw 32%, Gornik Zabrze 31%22' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 37%, draw 32%, Gornik Zabrze 31%23' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 37%, draw 33%, Gornik Zabrze 31%24' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 37%, draw 33%, Gornik Zabrze 31%25' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 37%, draw 33%, Gornik Zabrze 30%26' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 36%, draw 33%, Gornik Zabrze 30%27' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 36%, draw 33%, Gornik Zabrze 30%28' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 36%, draw 34%, Gornik Zabrze 30%29' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 36%, draw 34%, Gornik Zabrze 30%30' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 36%, draw 34%, Gornik Zabrze 30%31' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 36%, draw 34%, Gornik Zabrze 30%32' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 36%, draw 35%, Gornik Zabrze 30%33' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 35%, draw 35%, Gornik Zabrze 30%34' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 35%, draw 35%, Gornik Zabrze 30%35' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 35%, draw 35%, Gornik Zabrze 30%36' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 35%, draw 36%, Gornik Zabrze 29%37' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 35%, draw 36%, Gornik Zabrze 29%38' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 34%, draw 36%, Gornik Zabrze 29%39' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 34%, draw 37%, Gornik Zabrze 29%40' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 34%, draw 37%, Gornik Zabrze 29%41' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 34%, draw 37%, Gornik Zabrze 29%42' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 34%, draw 38%, Gornik Zabrze 29%43' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 33%, draw 38%, Gornik Zabrze 29%44' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 33%, draw 38%, Gornik Zabrze 28%45' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 33%, draw 39%, Gornik Zabrze 28%HT · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 32%, draw 40%, Gornik Zabrze 28%46' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 32%, draw 40%, Gornik Zabrze 28%47' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 32%, draw 41%, Gornik Zabrze 27%48' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 32%, draw 41%, Gornik Zabrze 27%49' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 31%, draw 41%, Gornik Zabrze 27%50' · 0–0 · Jagiellonia 31%, draw 42%, Gornik Zabrze 27%51' · 0–1 · Jagiellonia 11%, draw 25%, Gornik Zabrze 64%52' · 0–1 · Jagiellonia 10%, draw 25%, Gornik Zabrze 64%53' · 0–1 · Jagiellonia 10%, draw 25%, Gornik Zabrze 65%54' · 0–1 · Jagiellonia 10%, draw 25%, Gornik Zabrze 65%55' · 0–1 · Jagiellonia 9%, draw 25%, Gornik Zabrze 66%56' · 0–1 · Jagiellonia 9%, draw 25%, Gornik Zabrze 66%57' · 0–1 · Jagiellonia 9%, draw 25%, Gornik Zabrze 67%58' · 0–1 · Jagiellonia 8%, draw 24%, Gornik Zabrze 67%59' · 0–2 · Jagiellonia 1%, draw 6%, Gornik Zabrze 93%60' · 0–2 · Jagiellonia 1%, draw 5%, Gornik Zabrze 94%61' · 0–2 · Jagiellonia 1%, draw 5%, Gornik Zabrze 94%62' · 0–2 · Jagiellonia 1%, draw 5%, Gornik Zabrze 94%63' · 0–2 · Jagiellonia 1%, draw 5%, Gornik Zabrze 94%64' · 0–2 · Jagiellonia 1%, draw 5%, Gornik Zabrze 95%65' · 0–2 · Jagiellonia 1%, draw 4%, Gornik Zabrze 95%66' · 0–2 · Jagiellonia 1%, draw 4%, Gornik Zabrze 95%67' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 6%, draw 23%, Gornik Zabrze 71%68' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 6%, draw 22%, Gornik Zabrze 72%69' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 5%, draw 22%, Gornik Zabrze 73%70' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 5%, draw 22%, Gornik Zabrze 73%71' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 5%, draw 21%, Gornik Zabrze 74%72' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 5%, draw 21%, Gornik Zabrze 74%73' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 4%, draw 21%, Gornik Zabrze 75%74' · 2–2 · Jagiellonia 21%, draw 60%, Gornik Zabrze 19%75' · 2–2 · Jagiellonia 21%, draw 61%, Gornik Zabrze 18%76' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 4%, draw 19%, Gornik Zabrze 77%77' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 3%, draw 19%, Gornik Zabrze 78%78' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 3%, draw 19%, Gornik Zabrze 79%79' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 3%, draw 18%, Gornik Zabrze 79%80' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 2%, draw 17%, Gornik Zabrze 80%81' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 2%, draw 17%, Gornik Zabrze 81%83' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 2%, draw 15%, Gornik Zabrze 83%84' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 2%, draw 15%, Gornik Zabrze 84%85' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 1%, draw 14%, Gornik Zabrze 85%86' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 1%, draw 13%, Gornik Zabrze 86%87' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 1%, draw 12%, Gornik Zabrze 87%88' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 1%, draw 11%, Gornik Zabrze 88%89' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 1%, draw 10%, Gornik Zabrze 89%90' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 1%, draw 9%, Gornik Zabrze 90%90+1' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 0%, draw 8%, Gornik Zabrze 91%90+2' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 0%, draw 7%, Gornik Zabrze 93%90+3' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 0%, draw 5%, Gornik Zabrze 94%90+4' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 0%, draw 4%, Gornik Zabrze 96%90+5' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 0%, draw 2%, Gornik Zabrze 97%90+6' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 0%, draw 1%, Gornik Zabrze 99%90+7' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 0%, draw 0%, Gornik Zabrze 100%90+8' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 0%, draw 0%, Gornik Zabrze 100%90+9' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 0%, draw 0%, Gornik Zabrze 100%90+10' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 0%, draw 0%, Gornik Zabrze 100%90+11' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 0%, draw 0%, Gornik Zabrze 100%90+12' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 0%, draw 0%, Gornik Zabrze 100%90+13' · 1–2 · Jagiellonia 0%, draw 0%, Gornik Zabrze 100%90+14' · 1–3 · Jagiellonia 0%, draw 0%, Gornik Zabrze 100%

Last reading, 90+14': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Jagiellonia 39% to win: Gornik Zabrze won.

  1. 38'Gornik Zabrze:Rafał Janicki 1931 +5*
  2. 47'Gornik Zabrze:Ondrej Zmrzly 1857 +25
  3. 51'Gornik Zabrze:Jarosław Kubicki 1926 +46* assist Sondre Liseth 1833 +51*
  4. 58'Gornik Zabrze:Peter Federico González Carmona 1950 +6 for Yvan Ikia Dimi 1741 +14*
  5. 58'Gornik Zabrze:Sondre Liseth 1833 +51*
  6. 65'Jagiellonia:Ferslev Anders Klynge 1720 −8* for Ousmane Sow 1723 −8*
  7. 65'Jagiellonia:Bartlomiej Wdowik 1837 −11* for Cezary Polak 1610 −8*
  8. 66'Jagiellonia:Jeremy Agbonifo 1661 −8* for Sergio Lozano 1859 −18*
  9. 67'Jagiellonia:Jesús Imaz 1759 −19*
  10. 71'Jagiellonia:Jeremy Agbonifo 1661 −8*
  11. 71'Gornik Zabrze:Erik Prekop 1704 +6 for Sondre Liseth 1833 +51*
  12. 71'Gornik Zabrze:Zeidane Inoussa 1755 −1* for Maksym Khlan 1921 +16
  13. 73'Jagiellonia:Aleksandar·Cirkovic 1696 −8* for Kajetan·Szmyt 1822 −15*
  14. 83'Gornik Zabrze:Jarosław Kubicki 1926 +46*
  15. 84'Jagiellonia:Kamil Jóźwiak 1743 −9* for Rodrigo Conceição 1779 −12*
  16. 90+3'Gornik Zabrze:Malthe Hojholt 1746 +26*
  17. 90+5'Jagiellonia:Yuki Kobayashi 1889 −25*
  18. 90+5'Gornik Zabrze:Kacper Urbanski 1947 0 for Paulo Bernardo 2017 +6*
  19. 90+14'Gornik Zabrze:Kacper Urbanski 1947 0

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-3-3
GS. Abramowicz1862−22*
DRodrigo Conceição1779−12*
DBernardo Vital1842−47*
DY. Kobayashi1889−25*
DC. Polak1610−8*
MH. Finndell1763−11*
MSergio Lozano1859−18*
MO. Sow1723−8*
MJesús Imaz1759−19*
MK. Szmyt1822−15*
FN. Prelec1850−21*
CA. Siemieniec1843−32*
GP. Schulze1921+49*
DO. Zmrzlý1857+25
DR. Janicki1931+5*
DJosema Sánchez1955+7*
DE. Janža1909+58
MJ. Kubicki1926+46*
MM. Højholt1746+26*
MPaulo Bernardo2017+6*
FY. Ikia Dimi1741+14*
FS. Liseth1833+51*
FM. Khlan1921+16
CM. Gašparík1970+23*
Before kick-off: 39% · 29% · 32%(Jagiellonia · draw · Gornik Zabrze)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–3 had 3%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Jagiellonia €1.1M, Gornik Zabrze €1.1M.
  • Home advantage made Jagiellonia the favourite: it added 8 points to their win chance.
  • Gornik Zabrze were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Jagiellonia

10th in Ekstraklasa · 12 pts from 8

  • 20 SepLLegia Warszawa 1811
  • 16 SepLOlympiakos Piraeus 1861
  • 11 SepLWisla Krakow 1856
  • 6 SepWSlask Wroclaw 1840
  • 3 SepLLech Poznan 1815

Gornik Zabrze

1st in Ekstraklasa · 22 pts from 9

  • 19 SepDMotor Lublin 1883
  • 15 SepWKorona Kielce 1872
  • 12 SepWLech Poznan 1860
  • 6 SepWCracovia Krakow 1823
  • 3 SepWRaków Częstochowa 1812

Season outlook

From the Ekstraklasa simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Jagiellonia12 /851.72%29%1%5th
Gornik Zabrze22 /964.235%92%0%1st
Jagiellonia
Gornik Zabrze

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Ekstraklasa

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Sergio Lozano
Sergio Lozano

Jagiellonia · +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1878

Josema Sánchez
Josema Sánchez

Gornik Zabrze · +6.2 (Elite) · Elo 1948

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Adrian Siemieniec

Coach DNA: possession-based

Michal Gašparík

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Jagiellonia: possession-based (how Adrian Siemieniec plays) · Gornik Zabrze: possession-based (how Michal Gašparík plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.