HNL · Regular Season - 15
Istra 1961 vs NK Varazdin
Fri 27 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula
Istra 1961 host NK Varazdin on Fri 27 Nov 2026 (HNL); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Istra 1961 38%, draw 29%, NK Varazdin 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Istra 1961 €360K, NK Varazdin €453K.
- Home advantage makes Istra 1961 the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (HNL): Istra 1961 rank #4 of 11, NK Varazdin #10.
- Only 1 of Istra 1961's expected starters is past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Istra 1961 goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–010%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores42%
Team Elo: Istra 1961 1600 · NK Varazdin 1644
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Istra 1961 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1732
NK Varazdin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1627
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Istra 1961
4th in HNL · 19 pts from 13
- 7 NovWHNK Rijeka HNL1551
- 30 OctWNK Slaven Belupo HNL1509
- 26 OctDHNK Hajduk Split HNL1539
- 17 OctLNK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL1540
- 10 OctWNK Osijek HNL1559
NK Varazdin
5th in HNL · 19 pts from 13
- 8 NovLDinamo Zagreb HNL1655
- 1 NovDHNK Rijeka HNL1664
- 24 OctLNK Slaven Belupo HNL1707
- 18 OctLHNK Hajduk Split HNL1701
- 11 OctWNK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL1652
Season outlook
From the HNL simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istra 1961 | 19 /13 | 47.2 | 0% | 25% | 12% | 6th |
| NK Varazdin | 19 /13 | 50.4 | 0% | 46% | 5% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Istra 1961: balanced profile (how Javier Cabello plays) · NK Varazdin: balanced profile (how Nikola Šafarić plays)