1. Lig · Regular Season - 9
İstanbulspor 0–1 Esenler Erokspor
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Esenyurt Necmi Kadioglu Stadium, Istanbul
İstanbulsporTeam 1532Esenler EroksporTeam 1722Match story
İstanbulspor · draw · Esenler EroksporBefore kick-off: 29% · 28% · 43%
Last reading, 90+2': 0% · 6% · 94%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Guélor Kanga 20'
We gave Esenler Erokspor 43% to win: they did.
- 20'Guélor Kanga 1704 +2* assist Mikail Okyar 1814 +8*Esenler Erokspor:Guélor Kanga 1704 +2* assist Mikail Okyar 1814 +8*
- Yusuf Ozer 1634 −14*58'İstanbulspor:Yusuf Ozer 1634 −14*
- Alieu Cham 1458 −8* for Ömer Faruk Duymaz 1626 −12*59'İstanbulspor:Alieu Cham 1458 −8* for Ömer Faruk Duymaz 1626 −12*
- Mamadou Fall 1649 −17* for Ilian Iliev 1647 −13*59'İstanbulspor:Mamadou Fall 1649 −17* for Ilian Iliev 1647 −13*
- 61'Yusuf Erdoğan 1676 −4* for Pape Habib Gueye 1797 −4*Esenler Erokspor:Yusuf Erdoğan 1676 −4* for Pape Habib Gueye 1797 −4*
- 61'Tugay Kaçar 1679 −3* for Guélor Kanga 1704 +2*Esenler Erokspor:Tugay Kaçar 1679 −3* for Guélor Kanga 1704 +2*
- Elvin Mendy 1407 −8*69'İstanbulspor:Elvin Mendy 1407 −8*
- 70'Recep Niyaz 1726 −5* for Nicolas Janvier 1769 +8*Esenler Erokspor:Recep Niyaz 1726 −5* for Nicolas Janvier 1769 +8*
- 70'Kubilay Kanatsızkuş 1666 −6* for Burak Coban 1727 +9*Esenler Erokspor:Kubilay Kanatsızkuş 1666 −6* for Burak Coban 1727 +9*
- Aytaç Kara 1632 −14* for Berk Ali Nizam 1207 −8*77'İstanbulspor:Aytaç Kara 1632 −14* for Berk Ali Nizam 1207 −8*
- Phellipe Cardoso Araújo 1550 −8* for Yusuf Ozer 1634 −14*77'İstanbulspor:Phellipe Cardoso Araújo 1550 −8* for Yusuf Ozer 1634 −14*
- Kubilay Sönmez 1612 −12* for Duran Şahin 1680 −19*77'İstanbulspor:Kubilay Sönmez 1612 −12* for Duran Şahin 1680 −19*
- 87'Ferhat Yazgan 1565 −13* for Mikail Okyar 1814 +8*Esenler Erokspor:Ferhat Yazgan 1565 −13* for Mikail Okyar 1814 +8*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 29% · 28% · 43%(İstanbulspor · draw · Esenler Erokspor)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 0–1 had 9%.
- Average value of the starting XI: İstanbulspor €314K, Esenler Erokspor €507K.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
İstanbulspor
18th in 1. Lig · 5 pts from 8
- 20 SepWManisa F.K. Turkey 1 Lig1547
- 14 SepLKayserispor Turkey 1 Lig1590
- 7 SepLIğdır FK Turkey 1 Lig1557
- 3 SepLBursaspor Turkey 1 Lig1506
- 29 AugDFatih Karagümrük Turkey 1 Lig1507
Esenler Erokspor
17th in 1. Lig · 5 pts from 8
- 19 SepLFatih Karagümrük Turkey 1 Lig1756
- 13 SepDBursaspor Turkey 1 Lig1718
- 7 SepLKayserispor Turkey 1 Lig1733
- 3 SepDBodrum FK Turkey 1 Lig1775
- 30 AugLIğdır FK Turkey 1 Lig1735
Season outlook
From the 1. Lig simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| İstanbulspor | 5 /8 | 42.8 | 0% | <1% | 32% | 18th |
| Esenler Erokspor | 5 /8 | 54.4 | 1% | 15% | 1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
İstanbulspor · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1700
Esenler Erokspor · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Elite) · Elo 1702
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
İstanbulspor: balanced profile (how Olcay Demir plays) · Esenler Erokspor: balanced profile (how Mustafa Gürsel plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.