Premier League · Regular Season - 18
Irtysh 0–1 FC Astana
Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Centralnyj Stadion, Pavlodar
IrtyshTeam 1367FC AstanaTeam 1639- B. Islamkhan 50' (pen)
We gave FC Astana 51% to win: they did.
- J. Poe –1'Irtysh:J. Poe –
- Y. Shimamura –39'Irtysh:Y. Shimamura –
- M. Khalmatov – for Y. Shimamura –46'Irtysh:M. Khalmatov – for Y. Shimamura –
- Leonardo Kalil – for J. Poe –46'Irtysh:Leonardo Kalil – for J. Poe –
- 50'B. Islamkhan – (pen.)FC Astana:B. Islamkhan – (pen.)
- O. A. Falaye – for D. Esimbekov –64'Irtysh:O. A. Falaye – for D. Esimbekov –
- 67'A. Beysebekov – for D. Karaman –FC Astana:A. Beysebekov – for D. Karaman –
- 67'M. Abrayev – for D. Marat –FC Astana:M. Abrayev – for D. Marat –
- D. Berdibek – for T. Mukhametzhanov –71'Irtysh:D. Berdibek – for T. Mukhametzhanov –
- A. Nurlan – for R. Karimov –79'Irtysh:A. Nurlan – for R. Karimov –
- 80'I. Miladinovic – for B. Islamkhan –FC Astana:I. Miladinovic – for B. Islamkhan –
- 81'N. Buric – for R. Karimov –FC Astana:N. Buric – for R. Karimov –
- 88'D. Shomko – for M. Tomasov –FC Astana:D. Shomko – for M. Tomasov –
Before kick-off (provisional): 22% · 26% · 51%(Irtysh · draw · FC Astana)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 0–1 had 10%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Irtysh €166K, FC Astana €659K.
- Premier League: I. Bašić was the highest-rated midfielder (2034).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Irtysh
13th in Premier League · 26 pts from 26
- 18 SepWAltay Kazakhstan Premier League1295
- 13 SepWOkzhetpes Kazakhstan Premier League1272
- 5 SepLZhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League1391
- 30 AugWAktobe Kazakhstan Premier League1363
- 16 AugLFK Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League1344
FC Astana
3rd in Premier League · 45 pts from 25
- 17 SepWKairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League1628
- 12 SepLOrdabasy Kazakhstan Premier League1620
- 6 SepWYelimay Semey Kazakhstan Premier League1620
- 30 AugWAtyrau Kazakhstan Premier League1604
- 16 AugDKyzyl-Zhar Kazakhstan Premier League1606
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irtysh | 26 /26 | 29.7 | 0% | 0% | 32% | 13th |
| FC Astana | 45 /25 | 53.0 | 0% | 96% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Astana · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2034
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –