Primera A · Clausura - 5
Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin
Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 01:05 UTC · Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, Bogota
Internacional de Bogota host Independiente Medellin on Thu 29 Oct 2026 (Primera A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Internacional de Bogota 38%, draw 29%, Independiente Medellin 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Internacional de Bogota €304K, Independiente Medellin €448K.
- Home advantage makes Internacional de Bogota the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in possession (Primera A): Internacional de Bogota rank #21 of 22, Independiente Medellin #2.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Internacional de Bogota goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Internacional de Bogota 1584 · Independiente Medellin 1695
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Internacional de Bogota · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1697
Independiente Medellin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Average) · Elo 1691
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Internacional de Bogota
8th in Primera A · 28 pts from 19
- 10 OctDJunior Colombia Primera A1559
- 4 OctDOnce Caldas Colombia Primera A1576
- 26 SepDDeportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A1590
- 20 SepLBucaramanga Colombia Primera A1598
- 17 SepLAtletico Nacional Colombia Primera A1589
Independiente Medellin
11th in Primera A · 26 pts from 19
- 18 OctLOnce Caldas Colombia Primera A1703
- 12 OctWAmerica de Cali Colombia Primera A1666
- 6 OctLSanta Fe Colombia Primera A1668
- 30 SepDMillonarios Colombia Primera A1685
- 27 SepLJunior Colombia Primera A1720
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional de Bogota | 28 /19 | 35.1 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 9th |
| Independiente Medellin | 26 /19 | 32.8 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Internacional de Bogota: direct (how Ricardo Alfredo Valiño plays) · Independiente Medellin: possession-based (how Luis Amaranto Perea Mosquera plays)