Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 29
Inter Miami 2–0 New York City FC
Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Nu Stadium, Miami
Inter MiamiTeam 2121New York City FCTeam 1955- Germán Berterame 20'
- Rodrigo De Paul 45+5'
We gave Inter Miami 64% to win: they did.
- Germán Berterame 2176 +12 assist Luis Suárez 1868 +2220'Inter Miami:Germán Berterame 2176 +12 assist Luis Suárez 1868 +22
- Rodrigo De Paul 2190 +10 assist Lionel Messi 2102 +645+5'Inter Miami:Rodrigo De Paul 2190 +10 assist Lionel Messi 2102 +6
- Matías Galarza 2054 +1652'Inter Miami:Matías Galarza 2054 +16
- 58'Kevin O'Toole 1920 −2 for Nico Cavallo 1842 −1New York City FC:Kevin O'Toole 1920 −2 for Nico Cavallo 1842 −1
- 58'Hannes Wolf 1955 −3 for Alonso Martinez 1971 −5New York City FC:Hannes Wolf 1955 −3 for Alonso Martinez 1971 −5
- 65'Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos 1739 0 for Bénie Adama Traoré 1865 −1New York City FC:Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos 1739 0 for Bénie Adama Traoré 1865 −1
- Telasco Segovia 2190 +4 for Matías Galarza 2054 +1665'Inter Miami:Telasco Segovia 2190 +4 for Matías Galarza 2054 +16
- Fricio Caicedo 1795 −1* for Sergio Reguilón 2091 +1574'Inter Miami:Fricio Caicedo 1795 −1* for Sergio Reguilón 2091 +15
- Riquelme Fillipi 1615 +3 for Germán Berterame 2176 +1275'Inter Miami:Riquelme Fillipi 1615 +3 for Germán Berterame 2176 +12
- 85'Malachi Jones 1683 0 for Agustin Ojeda 1957 −6New York City FC:Malachi Jones 1683 0 for Agustin Ojeda 1957 −6
- Riquelme Fillipi 1615 +385'Inter Miami:Riquelme Fillipi 1615 +3
- 85'Talles Magno 1968 −8* for Aiden O'Neill 1951 −7New York City FC:Talles Magno 1968 −8* for Aiden O'Neill 1951 −7
- Ian Fray 2138 0 for David Ayala 1935 +3190'Inter Miami:Ian Fray 2138 0 for David Ayala 1935 +31
- 90+7'Nicolás Fernández Mercau 1922 −14 (penalty missed)New York City FC:Nicolás Fernández Mercau 1922 −14 (penalty missed)
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 64% · 17% · 19%(Inter Miami · draw · New York City FC)
Our most likely score was 3–1 (7%); the result 2–0 had 4%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Inter Miami €4.2M, New York City FC €2.6M.
- Inter Miami were without 1 expected starter: Y. Bright (2194).
- MLS: D. St. Clair was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2131).
- Inter Miami's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Inter Miami
2nd in MLS · 49 pts from 28
- 10 OctWDC United MLS2083
- 27 SepLColumbus Crew MLS2092
- 12 SepDNashville SC MLS2120
- 10 SepDChicago Fire MLS2122
- 5 SepDAtlanta United FC MLS2137
New York City FC
10th in MLS · 33 pts from 28
- 10 OctLChicago Fire MLS1964
- 26 SepDAtlanta United FC MLS1918
- 18 SepLNew York Red Bulls MLS1953
- 13 SepWReal Salt Lake MLS1916
- 10 SepLNew England Revolution MLS1942
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami | 49 /28 | 59.6 | 0% | 70% | 0% | 2nd |
| New York City FC | 33 /28 | 41.0 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Inter Miami · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +10.8 (Elite) · Elo 2096
New York City FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 1936
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Inter Miami: possession-based (how Kily Gonzalez plays) · New York City FC: balanced profile (how Pascal Jansen plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.