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Primera A · Clausura - 15

Independiente Medellin 0–2 Once Caldas

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 01:10 UTC · Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin

Independiente Medellin crestIndependiente MedellinTeam 1683
0–2
Full time
HT 0–1
Once Caldas crestOnce CaldasTeam 1614

Match story

Independiente Medellin · draw · Once Caldas

Before kick-off: 52% · 27% · 21%

Live chances: Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 0%, Once Caldas 100% at 90+3'1' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 52%, draw 27%, Once Caldas 21%2' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 52%, draw 27%, Once Caldas 21%3' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 52%, draw 27%, Once Caldas 21%4' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 52%, draw 27%, Once Caldas 21%5' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 51%, draw 27%, Once Caldas 21%6' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 51%, draw 28%, Once Caldas 21%7' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 51%, draw 28%, Once Caldas 21%8' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 51%, draw 28%, Once Caldas 21%9' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 51%, draw 28%, Once Caldas 21%10' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 51%, draw 28%, Once Caldas 21%11' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 50%, draw 28%, Once Caldas 21%12' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 50%, draw 28%, Once Caldas 21%13' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 50%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 21%14' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 50%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 21%15' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 50%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 21%16' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 50%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 21%17' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 49%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 21%18' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 49%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 21%19' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 49%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 21%20' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 49%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 21%21' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 49%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 21%22' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 48%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 21%23' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 48%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 21%24' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 48%, draw 31%, Once Caldas 21%25' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 48%, draw 31%, Once Caldas 22%26' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 48%, draw 31%, Once Caldas 22%27' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 47%, draw 31%, Once Caldas 22%28' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 47%, draw 31%, Once Caldas 22%29' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 47%, draw 31%, Once Caldas 22%30' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 47%, draw 32%, Once Caldas 22%31' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 47%, draw 32%, Once Caldas 22%32' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 46%, draw 32%, Once Caldas 22%33' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 46%, draw 32%, Once Caldas 22%34' · 0–0 · Independiente Medellin 46%, draw 33%, Once Caldas 22%35' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 25%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 45%36' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 25%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 46%37' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 24%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 46%38' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 24%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 46%39' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 24%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 47%40' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 23%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 47%41' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 23%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 47%42' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 22%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 48%43' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 22%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 48%44' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 22%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 49%45' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 21%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 49%45+1' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 21%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 49%45+2' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 21%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 50%HT · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 20%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 50%46' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 20%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 50%47' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 19%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 51%48' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 19%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 51%49' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 19%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 52%50' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 18%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 52%51' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 18%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 53%52' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 17%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 53%53' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 17%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 54%54' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 16%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 54%55' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 16%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 55%56' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 15%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 55%57' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 15%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 56%58' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 14%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 57%59' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 14%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 57%60' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 13%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 58%61' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 13%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 58%62' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 12%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 59%63' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 12%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 60%64' · 0–1 · Independiente Medellin 11%, draw 28%, Once Caldas 60%65' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 2%, draw 7%, Once Caldas 91%66' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 1%, draw 7%, Once Caldas 92%67' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 1%, draw 7%, Once Caldas 92%68' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 1%, draw 6%, Once Caldas 92%69' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 1%, draw 6%, Once Caldas 93%70' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 1%, draw 6%, Once Caldas 93%71' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 1%, draw 6%, Once Caldas 93%72' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 1%, draw 5%, Once Caldas 94%73' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 1%, draw 5%, Once Caldas 94%74' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 1%, draw 5%, Once Caldas 95%75' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 1%, draw 4%, Once Caldas 95%76' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 1%, draw 4%, Once Caldas 95%77' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 4%, Once Caldas 96%78' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 4%, Once Caldas 96%79' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 3%, Once Caldas 96%80' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 3%, Once Caldas 97%81' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 3%, Once Caldas 97%82' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 2%, Once Caldas 97%83' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 2%, Once Caldas 98%84' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 2%, Once Caldas 98%85' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 2%, Once Caldas 98%86' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 2%, Once Caldas 98%87' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 1%, Once Caldas 99%88' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 1%, Once Caldas 99%89' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 1%, Once Caldas 99%90' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 1%, Once Caldas 99%90+1' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 0%, Once Caldas 99%90+2' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 0%, Once Caldas 100%90+3' · 0–2 · Independiente Medellin 0%, draw 0%, Once Caldas 100%

Last reading, 90+3': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Independiente Medellin 52% to win: Once Caldas won.

  1. 17'Once Caldas:Jorge Cardona 1743 +29
  2. 21'Once Caldas:Andres Colorado 1712 +45
  3. 35'Once Caldas:Jefry Zapata 1715 +38 assist Juan Patiño 1758 +34
  4. 45'Independiente Medellin:Keiner David Klinger Vasquez 1502 0 for Hayen Palacios 1723 −11
  5. 45'Independiente Medellin:Diego Moreno 1619 −14* for Didier Moreno 1691 −16
  6. 53'Independiente Medellin:Luis Escorcia 1607 −4
  7. 57'Once Caldas:Juan Pablo Nieto 1662 +13
  8. 64'Independiente Medellin:Nivaldo Erazo 1444 0 for John Montano 1719 −16
  9. 64'Independiente Medellin:Carlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez 1661 −4 for Yony González 1681 −15
  10. 65'Once Caldas:Michael Barrios 1634 +49 assist Jefry Zapata 1715 +38
  11. 79'Once Caldas:Dayro Moreno 1355 −11 for Jefry Zapata 1715 +38
  12. 79'Once Caldas:Edwin Torres 1578 +2 for Michael Barrios 1634 +49
  13. 81'Independiente Medellin:Halam Stiven Loboa Diaz 1690 −18
  14. 82'Independiente Medellin:Keiner David Klinger Vasquez 1502 0
  15. 90'Once Caldas:Jaime Alvarado 1714 −8* for Jader Quinones 1690 +17
  16. 90+3'Once Caldas:Helieyker Guzman 1498 0 for Felipe Gomez 1704 +15

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-1-4-1
GS. Ichazo1634−12
DE. Mena1712−24
DL. Escorcia1607−4
DJ. Varela1709−22
DF. Fabra1679−25
MH. Loboa1690−18
MD. Moreno1691−16
MH. Palacios1723−11
MJ. Montaño1719−16
MY. González1681−15
FA. Martegani1669−15
CL. Perea1683−36
GJ. Parra1719+15
DJ. Cuesta1768+31
DJ. Cardona1743+29
DD. Londoño1703+45
DJ. Patiño1758+34
MJ. Nieto1662+13
MM. Barrios1634+49
MPipe Gómez1704+15
MA. Roa1613
MA. Colorado1712+45
FJ. Zapata1715+38
CH. Herrera1718+29
Before kick-off: 52% · 27% · 21%(Independiente Medellin · draw · Once Caldas)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 0–2 had 3%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Independiente Medellin €421K, Once Caldas €404K.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Independiente Medellin

11th in Primera A · 26 pts from 19

  • 12 OctWAmerica de Cali 1666
  • 6 OctLSanta Fe 1668
  • 30 SepDMillonarios 1685
  • 27 SepLJunior 1720
  • 22 SepWJaguares 1722

Once Caldas

5th in Primera A · 33 pts from 19

  • 10 OctWLlaneros 1662
  • 4 OctDInternacional de Bogota 1666
  • 26 SepLBucaramanga 1629
  • 20 SepLDeportivo Pasto 1654
  • 16 SepWDeportes Tolima 1630

Season outlook

From the Primera A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Independiente Medellin26 /1934.80%2%0%11th
Once Caldas33 /1940.50%40%0%5th
Independiente Medellin
Once Caldas

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Primera A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

J. Montaño
J. Montaño

Independiente Medellin · +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1734

J. Parra
J. Parra

Once Caldas · +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1705

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Luis Amaranto Perea Mosquera

Coach DNA: possession-based

Hernán Darío Herrera Ramírez

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Independiente Medellin: possession-based (how Luis Amaranto Perea Mosquera plays) · Once Caldas: balanced profile (how Hernán Darío Herrera Ramírez plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.