Primera A · Clausura - 17
Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 23:10 UTC · Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Independiente Medellin host Alianza Valledupar on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Primera A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Independiente Medellin 63%, draw 22%, Alianza Valledupar 15%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Independiente Medellin €448K, Alianza Valledupar €220K.
- Alianza Valledupar's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Independiente Medellin goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Independiente Medellin 1695 · Alianza Valledupar 1507
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Independiente Medellin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Average) · Elo 1691
Alianza Valledupar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1516
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Independiente Medellin
11th in Primera A · 26 pts from 19
- 18 OctLOnce Caldas Colombia Primera A1703
- 12 OctWAmerica de Cali Colombia Primera A1666
- 6 OctLSanta Fe Colombia Primera A1668
- 30 SepDMillonarios Colombia Primera A1685
- 27 SepLJunior Colombia Primera A1720
Alianza Valledupar
17th in Primera A · 17 pts from 19
- 9 OctDÁguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A1505
- 3 OctLDeportivo Cali Colombia Primera A1524
- 27 SepWJaguares Colombia Primera A1502
- 19 SepLSanta Fe Colombia Primera A1514
- 16 SepWChico Colombia Primera A1474
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin | 26 /19 | 32.8 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 13th |
| Alianza Valledupar | 17 /19 | 22.9 | 0% | 0% | 53% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Independiente Medellin: possession-based (how Luis Amaranto Perea Mosquera plays) · Alianza Valledupar: balanced profile (how Camilo Andrés Ayala Quintero plays)