Liga Pro · Championship Group - 4
Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito
Independiente del Valle host Universidad Catolica on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Liga Pro); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Independiente del Valle 55%, draw 25%, Universidad Catolica 20%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Independiente del Valle €1.1M, Universidad Catolica €572K.
- Liga Pro: A. Quintana is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1927).
- Style contrast in dribbling (Liga Pro): Independiente del Valle rank #13 of 16, Universidad Catolica #3.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Independiente del Valle goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 2–010%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Independiente del Valle 1841 · Universidad Catolica 1679
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Independiente del Valle · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1907
Universidad Catolica · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.6 (Elite) · Elo 1614
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Independiente del Valle
1st in Liga Pro · 74 pts from 30
- 17 OctLMacara Ecuador Liga Pro1875
- 10 OctWAucas Ecuador Liga Pro1871
- 18 SepDFlamengo Copa Libertadores1859
- 13 SepWLibertad Ecuador Liga Pro1744
- 11 SepLFlamengo Copa Libertadores1864
Universidad Catolica
2nd in Liga Pro · 51 pts from 30
- 18 OctDBarcelona SC Ecuador Liga Pro1722
- 11 OctLMacara Ecuador Liga Pro1723
- 20 SepLLDU de Quito Ecuador Liga Pro1652
- 15 SepWOrense SC Ecuador Liga Pro1638
- 6 SepWDelfin SC Ecuador Liga Pro1642
Season outlook
From the Liga Pro simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 77 /32 | 88.8 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Universidad Catolica | 52 /33 | 61.1 | 0% | 73% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Independiente del Valle: possession-based (how Joaquin Papa plays) · Universidad Catolica: possession-based · creative (how Diego Andrés Martínez Carrera plays)