Liga Pro · Championship Group - 7
Independiente del Valle vs Macara
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito
Independiente del Valle host Macara on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Liga Pro); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Independiente del Valle 52%, draw 26%, Macara 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Independiente del Valle €1.1M, Macara €618K.
- Liga Pro: A. Quintana is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1956).
- Style contrast in possession (Liga Pro): Independiente del Valle rank #2 of 16, Macara #14.
- Macara are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Independiente del Valle goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–011%
- 2–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores42%
Team Elo: Independiente del Valle 1858 · Macara 1732
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Independiente del Valle · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1890
Macara · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1740
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Independiente del Valle
1st in Liga Pro · 74 pts from 30
- 8 NovWAucas Ecuador Liga Pro1857
- 1 NovWLDU de Quito Ecuador Liga Pro1819
- 23 OctDUniversidad Catolica Ecuador Liga Pro1798
- 17 OctLMacara Ecuador Liga Pro1865
- 10 OctWAucas Ecuador Liga Pro1862
Macara
3rd in Liga Pro · 51 pts from 30
- 8 NovDUniversidad Catolica Ecuador Liga Pro1782
- 31 OctWBarcelona SC Ecuador Liga Pro1757
- 24 OctWLDU de Quito Ecuador Liga Pro1727
- 17 OctWIndependiente del Valle Ecuador Liga Pro1695
- 11 OctWUniversidad Catolica Ecuador Liga Pro1656
Season outlook
From the Liga Pro simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 84 /35 | 92.4 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Macara | 67 /36 | 72.5 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Independiente del Valle: possession-based (how Joaquin Papa plays) · Macara: balanced profile (how G. Sanguinetti plays)