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Liga Pro · Championship Group - 2

Independiente del Valle 2–1 Aucas

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Estadio Banco De Guayaquil, Quito

Independiente del Valle crestIndependiente del ValleTeam 1869
2–1
Full time
HT 0–1
Aucas crestAucasTeam 1551

Match story

Independiente del Valle · draw · Aucas

Before kick-off: 67% · 20% · 13%

Live chances: Independiente del Valle 99%, draw 1%, Aucas 0% at 90+6'1' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 67%, draw 20%, Aucas 13%2' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 67%, draw 20%, Aucas 13%3' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 67%, draw 21%, Aucas 13%4' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 67%, draw 21%, Aucas 13%5' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 66%, draw 21%, Aucas 13%6' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 66%, draw 21%, Aucas 13%7' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 66%, draw 21%, Aucas 13%8' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 66%, draw 21%, Aucas 13%9' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 65%, draw 22%, Aucas 13%10' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 65%, draw 22%, Aucas 13%11' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 65%, draw 22%, Aucas 13%12' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 65%, draw 22%, Aucas 13%13' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 64%, draw 22%, Aucas 13%14' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 64%, draw 23%, Aucas 13%15' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 64%, draw 23%, Aucas 13%16' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 64%, draw 23%, Aucas 14%18' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 63%, draw 23%, Aucas 14%19' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 63%, draw 24%, Aucas 14%20' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 62%, draw 24%, Aucas 14%21' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 62%, draw 24%, Aucas 14%22' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 62%, draw 24%, Aucas 14%23' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 61%, draw 25%, Aucas 14%24' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 61%, draw 25%, Aucas 14%25' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 61%, draw 25%, Aucas 14%26' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 61%, draw 25%, Aucas 14%27' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 60%, draw 26%, Aucas 14%28' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 60%, draw 26%, Aucas 14%29' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 60%, draw 26%, Aucas 14%30' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 59%, draw 26%, Aucas 14%31' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 59%, draw 27%, Aucas 14%32' · 0–0 · Independiente del Valle 59%, draw 27%, Aucas 14%33' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 36%, draw 28%, Aucas 36%34' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 36%, draw 28%, Aucas 36%35' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 35%, draw 28%, Aucas 36%36' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 35%, draw 29%, Aucas 37%37' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 34%, draw 29%, Aucas 37%38' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 34%, draw 29%, Aucas 38%39' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 33%, draw 29%, Aucas 38%40' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 32%, draw 29%, Aucas 38%41' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 32%, draw 29%, Aucas 39%42' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 31%, draw 29%, Aucas 39%43' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 31%, draw 30%, Aucas 40%44' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 30%, draw 30%, Aucas 40%45' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 30%, draw 30%, Aucas 41%45+1' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 29%, draw 30%, Aucas 41%45+2' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 28%, draw 30%, Aucas 42%45+3' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 28%, draw 30%, Aucas 42%45+4' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 27%, draw 30%, Aucas 42%HT · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 27%, draw 30%, Aucas 42%46' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 27%, draw 30%, Aucas 43%47' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 27%, draw 30%, Aucas 43%48' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 26%, draw 30%, Aucas 44%49' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 26%, draw 30%, Aucas 44%50' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 25%, draw 30%, Aucas 45%52' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 23%, draw 31%, Aucas 46%53' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 23%, draw 31%, Aucas 47%55' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 21%, draw 31%, Aucas 48%57' · 0–1 · Independiente del Valle 20%, draw 31%, Aucas 50%58' · 1–1 · Independiente del Valle 44%, draw 41%, Aucas 15%59' · 1–1 · Independiente del Valle 44%, draw 41%, Aucas 15%60' · 1–1 · Independiente del Valle 43%, draw 42%, Aucas 15%61' · 1–1 · Independiente del Valle 42%, draw 43%, Aucas 15%62' · 1–1 · Independiente del Valle 42%, draw 44%, Aucas 15%63' · 1–1 · Independiente del Valle 41%, draw 45%, Aucas 14%64' · 1–1 · Independiente del Valle 40%, draw 45%, Aucas 14%65' · 1–1 · Independiente del Valle 39%, draw 46%, Aucas 14%67' · 1–1 · Independiente del Valle 38%, draw 48%, Aucas 14%68' · 1–1 · Independiente del Valle 37%, draw 49%, Aucas 14%70' · 1–1 · Independiente del Valle 36%, draw 51%, Aucas 14%71' · 1–1 · Independiente del Valle 35%, draw 52%, Aucas 13%72' · 1–1 · Independiente del Valle 34%, draw 53%, Aucas 13%74' · 1–1 · Independiente del Valle 32%, draw 55%, Aucas 13%75' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 87%, draw 11%, Aucas 1%76' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 88%, draw 11%, Aucas 1%77' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 88%, draw 11%, Aucas 1%79' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 89%, draw 10%, Aucas 1%80' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 89%, draw 10%, Aucas 1%81' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 89%, draw 10%, Aucas 1%82' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 90%, draw 10%, Aucas 1%83' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 90%, draw 9%, Aucas 1%84' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 91%, draw 9%, Aucas 1%85' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 91%, draw 8%, Aucas 1%88' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 93%, draw 7%, Aucas 0%89' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 93%, draw 6%, Aucas 0%90' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 94%, draw 6%, Aucas 0%90+1' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 95%, draw 5%, Aucas 0%90+3' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 96%, draw 3%, Aucas 0%90+4' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 97%, draw 3%, Aucas 0%90+5' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 98%, draw 2%, Aucas 0%90+6' · 2–1 · Independiente del Valle 99%, draw 1%, Aucas 0%

Last reading, 90+6': 99% · 1% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score. Shaded: minutes without a reading.

We gave Independiente del Valle 67% to win: they did.

  1. 33'Aucas:Piero Andrés Guzmán Arrobo 1607 −16* assist Ayrton Preciado 1551 −14*
  2. 34'Independiente del Valle:Junior Sornoza 1829 −2*
  3. 39'Independiente del Valle:Junior Sornoza 1829 −2* (penalty missed)
  4. 56'Independiente del Valle:Hugo Quintana 1857 +26*
  5. 59'Independiente del Valle:Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios for Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez 1920 −1*
  6. 59'Independiente del Valle:Djorkaeff Reascos 1807 −3* for Carlos González 1751 −2*
  7. 65'Independiente del Valle:Hugo Quintana 1857 +26*
  8. 67'Independiente del Valle:Ronald Briones 1889 −5* for Junior Sornoza 1829 −2*
  9. 68'Aucas:Maverick Vera 1402 −8* for Luis Arroyo 1557 −11*
  10. 68'Aucas:B. Oyola 1623 −11* for Byron Yardel Carabalí Delgado 1287 −8*
  11. 74'Independiente del Valle:Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios
  12. 79'Aucas:Cristhoper Zambrano 1589 −8* for Andres Mena 1653 −12*
  13. 79'Aucas:Alexander Bolaños 1537 −8* for Ayrton Preciado 1551 −14*
  14. 86'Independiente del Valle:Edwin Quintero 1621 −7* for Matias Mijail Perello 1895 +3*
  15. 86'Independiente del Valle:Jhegson Mendez Carabali 1843 −9* for Hugo Quintana 1857 +26*
  16. 90+5'Aucas:Santiago Morales 1646 −12*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-1-4-1Formations4-1-4-1
GHamilton Emanuel Piedra Ordóñez1654−14*
DA. Zova1638−12*
DS. Tapiero1455−15*
DS. Morales1646−12*
DB. Carabalí1287−8*
MA. Spina1669−13*
MA. Preciado1551−14*
MP. Guzmán1607−16*
MAndrés David Mena Montenegro1653−12*
MR. Quiñónez1604−11*
FLuis Aldair Arroyo Cabeza1557−11*
CN. Araujo1641−16*
Before kick-off: 67% · 20% · 13%(Independiente del Valle · draw · Aucas)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 2–1 had 10%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Independiente del Valle €1.2M, Aucas €348K.
  • Liga Pro: A. Quintana was the highest-rated goalkeeper (1943).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Independiente del Valle

1st in Liga Pro · 74 pts from 30

  • 18 SepDFlamengo 1859
  • 13 SepWLibertad 1744
  • 11 SepLFlamengo 1864
  • 5 SepWMacara 1766
  • 3 SepLBarcelona SC 1873

Aucas

4th in Liga Pro · 50 pts from 30

  • 19 SepLMacara 1622
  • 12 SepDManta FC 1502
  • 7 SepDBarcelona SC 1635
  • 3 SepDUniversidad Catolica 1647
  • 30 AugWLibertad 1610

Season outlook

From the Liga Pro simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Independiente del Valle74 /3089.6100%100%0%1st
Aucas50 /3159.30%35%0%5th
Independiente del Valle
Aucas

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Liga Pro

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

L. Loor
L. Loor

Independiente del Valle · +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1915

A. Preciado
A. Preciado

Aucas · +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1565

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Joaquin Papa

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Norberto Carlos Araujo

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Independiente del Valle: possession-based (how Joaquin Papa plays) · Aucas: balanced profile (how Norberto Carlos Araujo plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.