K League 1 · Championship Group - 36
Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 07:30 UTC · Sungui Arena Park, Incheon
Incheon United host Ulsan Hyundai FC on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (K League 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Incheon United 33%, draw 29%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 38%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Incheon United €288K, Ulsan Hyundai FC €547K.
- Style contrast in discipline (K League 1): Incheon United rank #10 of 12, Ulsan Hyundai FC #4.
- Ulsan Hyundai FC's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.2 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Incheon United goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–110%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
- Other scores42%
Team Elo: Incheon United 1580 · Ulsan Hyundai FC 1686
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Incheon United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1679
Ulsan Hyundai FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1734
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Incheon United
6th in K League 1 · 46 pts from 33
- 8 NovLDaejeon Citizen K League 11571
- 1 NovWFC Seoul K League 11566
- 24 OctWJeju United FC K League 11543
- 18 OctDGangwon FC K League 11548
- 9 OctWPohang Steelers K League 11503
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2nd in K League 1 · 51 pts from 33
- 8 NovWFC Seoul K League 11671
- 1 NovWGangwon FC K League 11649
- 24 OctDPohang Steelers K League 11651
- 17 OctWBucheon FC 1995 K League 11629
- 11 OctLGwangju FC K League 11660
Season outlook
From the K League 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incheon United | 49 /35 | 52.6 | 0% | 17% | 0% | 7th |
| Ulsan Hyundai FC | 57 /35 | 61.1 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Incheon United: balanced profile (how Jong-Hwan Yoon plays) · Ulsan Hyundai FC: possession-based (how Hyun-Seok Kim plays)