K League 1 · Regular Season - 33
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 05:00 UTC · Sungui Arena Park, Incheon
Incheon United host Jeju United FC on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (K League 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Incheon United 39%, draw 29%, Jeju United FC 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Incheon United €253K, Jeju United FC €354K.
- Home advantage makes Incheon United the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- All 11 of Jeju United FC's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Incheon United goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Incheon United 1559 · Jeju United FC 1585
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Incheon United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1579
Jeju United FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1701
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Incheon United
7th in K League 1 · 43 pts from 32
- 18 OctDGangwon FC K League 11557
- 9 OctWPohang Steelers K League 11512
- 27 SepDGangwon FC K League 11499
- 20 SepDDaejeon Citizen K League 11538
- 12 SepLUlsan Hyundai FC K League 11525
Jeju United FC
6th in K League 1 · 46 pts from 32
- 18 OctLJeonbuk Motors K League 11556
- 10 OctLFC Seoul K League 11614
- 20 SepWGangwon FC K League 11580
- 12 SepDBucheon FC 1995 K League 11609
- 9 SepWGwangju FC K League 11563
Season outlook
From the K League 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incheon United | 43 /32 | 44.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6th |
| Jeju United FC | 46 /32 | 47.2 | 0% | 23% | 0% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Incheon United: balanced profile (how Jong-Hwan Yoon plays) · Jeju United FC: balanced profile (how Sergio Costa plays)