Allsvenskan · Regular Season - 25
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Borås Arena, Boras
IF Elfsborg host Malmo FF on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Allsvenskan); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: IF Elfsborg 41%, draw 29%, Malmo FF 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: IF Elfsborg €759K, Malmo FF €829K.
- Home advantage makes IF Elfsborg the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in attacking (Allsvenskan): IF Elfsborg rank #15 of 16, Malmo FF #3.
- IF Elfsborg's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. IF Elfsborg goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: IF Elfsborg 1707 · Malmo FF 1712
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
IF Elfsborg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1772
Malmo FF · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.0 (Good) · Elo 1762
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
IF Elfsborg
5th in Allsvenskan · 41 pts from 24
- 18 OctDSirius Allsvenskan1736
- 12 OctWHalmstad Allsvenskan1712
- 20 SepWDjurgardens IF Allsvenskan1696
- 13 SepWKalmar FF Allsvenskan1676
- 6 SepLIF Brommapojkarna Allsvenskan1691
Malmo FF
7th in Allsvenskan · 36 pts from 24
- 18 OctLBK Hacken Allsvenskan1731
- 12 OctWKalmar FF Allsvenskan1714
- 19 SepLVasteras SK FK Allsvenskan1744
- 13 SepWOrgryte IS Allsvenskan1704
- 7 SepDAIK Stockholm Allsvenskan1740
Season outlook
From the Allsvenskan simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF Elfsborg | 41 /24 | 49.8 | 0% | 38% | 0% | 5th |
| Malmo FF | 36 /24 | 44.8 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
IF Elfsborg: direct (how Bjorn Hamberg plays) · Malmo FF: possession-based (how Gaute Ugelstad Helstrup plays)