UEFA Nations League · League C - 6
Iceland vs Luxembourg
Mon 16 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Iceland host Luxembourg on Mon 16 Nov 2026 (UEFA Nations League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Iceland 68%, draw 20%, Luxembourg 12%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Iceland €6.6M, Luxembourg €463K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Iceland goals first.
- 2–012%
- 1–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–19%
- 3–09%
- 3–17%
- Other scores42%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.0 pts
Team Elo: Iceland 1911 · Luxembourg 1621
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each team's last 4 UEFA Nations League matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Iceland · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2003
Luxembourg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.1 (Average) · Elo 1956
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –