Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 30
Houston Dynamo 2–2 FC Dallas
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC · BBVA Compass Stadium, Houston
Houston DynamoTeam 1962
FC DallasTeam 1883Match story
Houston Dynamo · draw · FC DallasBefore kick-off: 52% · 26% · 22%
Last reading, 90+13': 0% · 100% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Héctor Herrera 49'
- Mateusz Bogusz 90+4' (pen)
- Christian Cappis 12'
- Petar Musa 90+11' (pen)
We gave Houston Dynamo 52% to win: it ended in a draw.
- 12'Christian Cappis 1918 +13 assist Daniel Job 1438 +24
FC Dallas:Christian Cappis 1918 +13 assist Daniel Job 1438 +24 - Agustin Resch 1994 −127'
Houston Dynamo:Agustin Resch 1994 −1 - Franco Negri 1904 −328'
Houston Dynamo:Franco Negri 1904 −3 - 29'Petar Musa 1978 +10 (penalty missed)
FC Dallas:Petar Musa 1978 +10 (penalty missed) - Héctor Herrera 1798 −9 assist Guilherme Augusto 2030 −749'
Houston Dynamo:Héctor Herrera 1798 −9 assist Guilherme Augusto 2030 −7 - 59'Sebastien Ibeagha 1872 −1
FC Dallas:Sebastien Ibeagha 1872 −1 - Diadie Samassekou 1844 −360'
Houston Dynamo:Diadie Samassekou 1844 −3 - Ibrahim Aliyu 1945 0 for Diadie Samassekou 1844 −361'
Houston Dynamo:Ibrahim Aliyu 1945 0 for Diadie Samassekou 1844 −3 - 61'Santiago Moreno 2021 +3 for Daniel Job 1438 +24
FC Dallas:Santiago Moreno 2021 +3 for Daniel Job 1438 +24 - 61'Joaquín Valiente Cioli 2030 +1 for Patrickson Delgado 1856 +4
FC Dallas:Joaquín Valiente Cioli 2030 +1 for Patrickson Delgado 1856 +4 - Duncan McGuire 1827 0 for Lyle Foster 1971 −172'
Houston Dynamo:Duncan McGuire 1827 0 for Lyle Foster 1971 −1 - 79'Ran Binyamin 1767 +1 for Herman Johansson 1980 +2
FC Dallas:Ran Binyamin 1767 +1 for Herman Johansson 1980 +2 - Duane Holmes 1608 −4 for Lawrence Ennali 2036 −287'
Houston Dynamo:Duane Holmes 1608 −4 for Lawrence Ennali 2036 −2 - Nick Markanich 1327 0 for Guilherme Augusto 2030 −788'
Houston Dynamo:Nick Markanich 1327 0 for Guilherme Augusto 2030 −7 - 89'Samuel Sarver 1634 −6* for Bernard Kamungo 1989 +4
FC Dallas:Samuel Sarver 1634 −6* for Bernard Kamungo 1989 +4 - Lucas Halter 2006 −190'
Houston Dynamo:Lucas Halter 2006 −1 - Mateusz Bogusz 2111 −3 (pen.)90+4'
Houston Dynamo:Mateusz Bogusz 2111 −3 (pen.) - Mateusz Bogusz 2111 −390+8'
Houston Dynamo:Mateusz Bogusz 2111 −3 - 90+11'Petar Musa 1978 +10 (pen.)
FC Dallas:Petar Musa 1978 +10 (pen.)
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 52% · 26% · 22%(Houston Dynamo · draw · FC Dallas)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 2–2 had 5%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Houston Dynamo €2.1M, FC Dallas €1.4M.
- FC Dallas were without 1 expected starter: L. Farrington (1958).
- Home advantage made Houston Dynamo the favourite: it added 9 points to their win chance.
- All 11 of Houston Dynamo's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Houston Dynamo
5th in MLS · 46 pts from 29
- 15 OctDSan Diego MLS1970
- 11 OctDMinnesota United FC MLS1990
- 27 SepLSporting Kansas City MLS1990
- 20 SepDFC Cincinnati MLS2005
- 13 SepLSan Jose Earthquakes MLS2011
FC Dallas
3rd in MLS · 50 pts from 29
- 15 OctWSeattle Sounders MLS1947
- 10 OctLCharlotte MLS1956
- 27 SepWLos Angeles FC MLS1962
- 20 SepDAustin MLS1947
- 13 SepWPortland Timbers MLS1931
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 46 /29 | 53.4 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 10th |
| FC Dallas | 50 /29 | 57.7 | 0% | 38% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Houston Dynamo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 2037

FC Dallas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Average) · Elo 2080
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Houston Dynamo: possession-based (how Benjamin Robert Olsen plays) · FC Dallas: balanced profile (how Eric Quill plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.