2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 9
Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UTC · Holstein-Stadion, Kiel
Holstein Kiel host Dynamo Dresden on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (2. Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Holstein Kiel 46%, draw 28%, Dynamo Dresden 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Holstein Kiel €1.1M, Dynamo Dresden €1.0M.
- Style contrast in discipline (2. Bundesliga): Holstein Kiel rank #17 of 18, Dynamo Dresden #1.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Holstein Kiel goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Holstein Kiel 1758 · Dynamo Dresden 1725
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Holstein Kiel · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.9 (Good) · Elo 1792
Dynamo Dresden · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1751
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Holstein Kiel
18th in 2. Bundesliga · 5 pts from 8
- 16 OctDHertha BSC Germany 2 Bundesliga1729
- 9 OctLEintracht Braunschweig Germany 2 Bundesliga1771
- 19 SepDVfL Osnabrück Germany 2 Bundesliga1768
- 13 SepL1. FC Heidenheim Germany 2 Bundesliga1773
- 5 SepD1. FC Nürnberg Germany 2 Bundesliga1809
Dynamo Dresden
11th in 2. Bundesliga · 8 pts from 8
- 18 OctW1. FC Magdeburg Germany 2 Bundesliga1717
- 10 OctDVfL Osnabrück Germany 2 Bundesliga1720
- 19 SepLHertha BSC Germany 2 Bundesliga1722
- 12 SepDEintracht Braunschweig Germany 2 Bundesliga1734
- 5 SepLVfL Bochum Germany 2 Bundesliga1756
Season outlook
From the 2. Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | 5 /8 | 38.9 | 0% | 1% | 33% | 17th |
| Dynamo Dresden | 8 /8 | 39.3 | 0% | 1% | 34% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Holstein Kiel: balanced profile (how Tim Laszlo Walter plays) · Dynamo Dresden: balanced profile (how Thomas Stamm plays)