2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 11
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Holstein-Stadion, Kiel
Holstein Kiel host Arminia Bielefeld on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (2. Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Holstein Kiel 42%, draw 29%, Arminia Bielefeld 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Holstein Kiel €1.1M, Arminia Bielefeld €1.1M.
- Home advantage makes Holstein Kiel the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in discipline (2. Bundesliga): Holstein Kiel rank #17 of 18, Arminia Bielefeld #2.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Holstein Kiel goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Holstein Kiel 1755 · Arminia Bielefeld 1773
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Holstein Kiel · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.9 (Good) · Elo 1792
Arminia Bielefeld · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Good) · Elo 1791
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Holstein Kiel
18th in 2. Bundesliga · 5 pts from 8
- 16 OctDHertha BSC Germany 2 Bundesliga1729
- 9 OctLEintracht Braunschweig Germany 2 Bundesliga1771
- 19 SepDVfL Osnabrück Germany 2 Bundesliga1768
- 13 SepL1. FC Heidenheim Germany 2 Bundesliga1773
- 5 SepD1. FC Nürnberg Germany 2 Bundesliga1809
Arminia Bielefeld
8th in 2. Bundesliga · 11 pts from 8
- 18 OctWVfL Osnabrück Germany 2 Bundesliga1747
- 11 OctWVfL Bochum Germany 2 Bundesliga1729
- 20 SepD1. FC Heidenheim Germany 2 Bundesliga1781
- 11 SepLSV Darmstadt 98 Germany 2 Bundesliga1762
- 4 SepDFC St. Pauli Germany 2 Bundesliga1771
Season outlook
From the 2. Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | 5 /8 | 38.5 | 0% | 1% | 35% | 16th |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 11 /8 | 45.4 | 1% | 8% | 8% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Holstein Kiel: balanced profile (how T. Walter plays) · Arminia Bielefeld: balanced profile (how Oliver Kirch plays)