HNL · Regular Season - 12
HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka
HNK Rijeka host NK Varazdin on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (HNL); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: HNK Rijeka 54%, draw 26%, NK Varazdin 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: HNK Rijeka €1.3M, NK Varazdin €564K.
- Style contrast in attacking (HNL): HNK Rijeka rank #3 of 11, NK Varazdin #8.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. HNK Rijeka goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 2–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: HNK Rijeka 1825 · NK Varazdin 1674
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
HNK Rijeka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.3 (Good) · Elo 1912
NK Varazdin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 1619
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
HNK Rijeka
5th in HNL · 17 pts from 9
- 16 OctWRudes HNL1826
- 11 OctLNK Slaven Belupo HNL1841
- 20 SepWHNK Hajduk Split HNL1819
- 12 SepDNK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL1821
- 5 SepWNK Osijek HNL1802
NK Varazdin
3rd in HNL · 18 pts from 10
- 18 OctLHNK Hajduk Split HNL1714
- 11 OctWNK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL1667
- 19 SepDNK Osijek HNL1655
- 14 SepDHNK Gorica HNL1657
- 4 SepDIstra 1961 HNL1668
Season outlook
From the HNL simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Rijeka | 17 /9 | 64.1 | 5% | 96% | 0% | 3rd |
| NK Varazdin | 18 /10 | 54.9 | <1% | 71% | 1% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
HNK Rijeka: balanced profile (how Matjaž Kek plays) · NK Varazdin: balanced profile (how Nikola Šafarić plays)