HNL · Regular Season - 14
HNK Rijeka vs HNK Gorica
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka
HNK Rijeka host HNK Gorica on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (HNL); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: HNK Rijeka 65%, draw 21%, HNK Gorica 14%.
- Average value of the expected XI: HNK Rijeka €1.1M, HNK Gorica €281K.
- Style contrast in chance creation (HNL): HNK Rijeka rank #3 of 11, HNK Gorica #11.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. HNK Rijeka goals first.
- 1–013%
- 2–013%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 3–08%
- 0–07%
- Other scores39%
Team Elo: HNK Rijeka 1794 · HNK Gorica 1510
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
HNK Rijeka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1858
HNK Gorica · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.1 (Good) · Elo 1559
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
HNK Rijeka
6th in HNL · 18 pts from 12
- 7 NovLIstra 1961 HNL1810
- 1 NovDNK Varazdin HNL1865
- 27 OctLDinamo Zagreb HNL1848
- 16 OctWRudes HNL1818
- 11 OctLNK Slaven Belupo HNL1835
HNK Gorica
10th in HNL · 7 pts from 13
- 7 NovLNK Slaven Belupo HNL1545
- 31 OctLHNK Hajduk Split HNL1491
- 24 OctDNK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL1499
- 17 OctDNK Osijek HNL1495
- 9 OctLRudes HNL1539
Season outlook
From the HNL simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Rijeka | 18 /12 | 58.6 | 1% | 90% | <1% | 3rd |
| HNK Gorica | 7 /13 | 29.6 | 0% | 0% | 97% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
HNK Rijeka: balanced profile (how Matjaž Kek plays) · HNK Gorica: balanced profile (how Mario Carević plays)