HNL · Regular Season - 14
HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadion Poljud, Split
HNK Hajduk Split host NK Lokomotiva Zagreb on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (HNL); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: HNK Hajduk Split 66%, draw 21%, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 13%.
- Average value of the expected XI: HNK Hajduk Split €1.2M, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb €426K.
- Style contrast in discipline (HNL): HNK Hajduk Split rank #3 of 11, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb #8.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. HNK Hajduk Split goals first.
- 2–012%
- 1–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores42%
Team Elo: HNK Hajduk Split 1816 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1517
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
HNK Hajduk Split · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1915
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Average) · Elo 1473
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
HNK Hajduk Split
1st in HNL · 29 pts from 13
- 8 NovWNK Osijek HNL1803
- 5 NovLLincoln Red Imps FC UEFA Conference League1860
- 31 OctWHNK Gorica HNL1813
- 26 OctDIstra 1961 HNL1866
- 22 OctWFC Thun UEFA Conference League1848
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9th in HNL · 11 pts from 13
- 6 NovLRudes HNL1511
- 1 NovLNK Osijek HNL1529
- 24 OctDHNK Gorica HNL1536
- 17 OctWIstra 1961 HNL1492
- 11 OctLNK Varazdin HNL1538
Season outlook
From the HNL simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | 29 /13 | 69.0 | 12% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 11 /13 | 33.9 | 0% | <1% | 87% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
HNK Hajduk Split: balanced profile (how Gonzalo García plays) · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: balanced profile (how Nikica Jelavić plays)