HNL · Regular Season - 12
HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadion Poljud, Split
HNK Hajduk Split host HNK Gorica on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (HNL); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: HNK Hajduk Split 64%, draw 22%, HNK Gorica 15%.
- Average value of the expected XI: HNK Hajduk Split €1.1M, HNK Gorica €341K.
- Style contrast in chance creation (HNL): HNK Hajduk Split rank #2 of 11, HNK Gorica #11.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. HNK Hajduk Split goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: HNK Hajduk Split 1801 · HNK Gorica 1532
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
HNK Hajduk Split · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1906
HNK Gorica · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Average) · Elo 1584
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
HNK Hajduk Split
1st in HNL · 22 pts from 10
- 18 OctWNK Varazdin HNL1779
- 15 OctWAjax UEFA Conference League1810
- 10 OctWDinamo Zagreb HNL1778
- 20 SepLHNK Rijeka HNL1786
- 13 SepWNK Slaven Belupo HNL1799
HNK Gorica
10th in HNL · 6 pts from 10
- 17 OctDNK Osijek HNL1503
- 9 OctLRudes HNL1547
- 19 SepWIstra 1961 HNL1496
- 14 SepDNK Varazdin HNL1533
- 5 SepLDinamo Zagreb HNL1538
Season outlook
From the HNL simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | 22 /10 | 66.6 | 8% | 98% | 0% | 2nd |
| HNK Gorica | 6 /10 | 33.8 | 0% | <1% | 76% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
HNK Hajduk Split: balanced profile (how Gonzalo Manuel García García plays) · HNK Gorica: balanced profile (how Mario Carević plays)