HNL · Regular Season - 9
HNK Gorica 1–2 Rudes
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadion Radnik, Veliky Gorica
HNK GoricaTeam 1547RudesTeam 1476We gave HNK Gorica 47% to win: Rudes won.
Before kick-off (provisional): 47% · 28% · 25%(HNK Gorica · draw · Rudes)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 1–2 had 7%.
- Average value of the expected XI: HNK Gorica €356K, Rudes €257K.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
HNK Gorica
9th in HNL · 5 pts from 8
- 19 SepWIstra 1961 HNL1496
- 14 SepDNK Varazdin HNL1533
- 5 SepLDinamo Zagreb HNL1539
- 31 AugDHNK Rijeka HNL1534
- 22 AugLNK Slaven Belupo HNL1520
Rudes
10th in HNL · 4 pts from 8
- 18 SepDNK Slaven Belupo HNL1454
- 13 SepLIstra 1961 HNL1479
- 6 SepLHNK Hajduk Split HNL1431
- 29 AugLNK Varazdin HNL1460
- 21 AugWNK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL1424
Season outlook
From the HNL simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Gorica | 5 /8 | 37.4 | 0% | 1% | 54% | 7th |
| Rudes | 4 /8 | 31.5 | 0% | <1% | 85% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
HNK Gorica · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1673
Rudes · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1469
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
HNK Gorica: balanced profile (how Mario Carević plays) · Rudes: low-block · direct (how Alen Peternac plays)