HNL · Regular Season - 11
HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Gradski stadion Velika Gorica, Velika Gorica
HNK Gorica host NK Lokomotiva Zagreb on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (HNL); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: HNK Gorica 40%, draw 29%, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: HNK Gorica €341K, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb €369K.
- Home advantage makes HNK Gorica the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (HNL): HNK Gorica rank #9 of 11, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb #2.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. HNK Gorica goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: HNK Gorica 1532 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1553
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
HNK Gorica · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Average) · Elo 1584
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Elite) · Elo 1569
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
HNK Gorica
10th in HNL · 6 pts from 10
- 17 OctDNK Osijek HNL1503
- 9 OctLRudes HNL1547
- 19 SepWIstra 1961 HNL1496
- 14 SepDNK Varazdin HNL1533
- 5 SepLDinamo Zagreb HNL1538
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
7th in HNL · 10 pts from 10
- 17 OctWIstra 1961 HNL1499
- 11 OctLNK Varazdin HNL1543
- 20 SepLDinamo Zagreb HNL1523
- 12 SepDHNK Rijeka HNL1518
- 6 SepLNK Slaven Belupo HNL1523
Season outlook
From the HNL simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Gorica | 6 /10 | 33.8 | 0% | <1% | 76% | 10th |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 10 /10 | 38.9 | 0% | 2% | 46% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
HNK Gorica: balanced profile (how Mario Carević plays) · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: balanced profile (how Nikica Jelavić plays)