Premier League · First Stage - Top 6 - 13
Hibernians vs Marsaxlokk
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 16:30 UTC
Hibernians host Marsaxlokk on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Hibernians 48%, draw 27%, Marsaxlokk 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Hibernians €288K, Marsaxlokk €185K.
- M. Römling, S. Alfred, D. Xuereb, L. Lacunza, M. El Fanis, B. Kristensen and A. Sobczyk (Hibernians) have not played for over 90 days.
- C. Mafoumbi, N. Muscat, U. Arias, J. Minala, L. Aguirre, Dodo, J. C. Corbalan, M. García, O. El Hasni and R. Lindén (Marsaxlokk) have not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Hibernians goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–07%
- 0–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Hibernians 1424 · Marsaxlokk 1346
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Hibernians · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Good) · Elo 1584
Marsaxlokk · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1191
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Hibernians
6th in Premier League · 16 pts from 11
- 14 MarLNaxxar Lions Malta Premier League1341
- 7 MarLGzira United Malta Premier League1347
- 28 FebDValletta FC Malta Premier League1371
- 22 FebLFloriana Malta Premier League1390
- 18 FebLHamrun Spartans Malta Premier League1461
Marsaxlokk
2nd in Premier League · 20 pts from 11
- 14 AugDBalzan FC Malta Premier League1370
- 16 JulLPyunik Yerevan UEFA Conference League1371
- 9 JulLPyunik Yerevan UEFA Conference League1369
- 14 MarDValletta FC Malta Premier League1391
- 8 MarDNaxxar Lions Malta Premier League1405
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernians | 19 /12 | 25.0 | 5% | 58% | <1% | 3rd |
| Marsaxlokk | 21 /12 | 25.8 | 9% | 74% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –