Canadian Premier League · Group Stage
HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Wanderers Grounds
HFX Wanderers FC host Supra du Quebec on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Canadian Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: HFX Wanderers FC 41%, draw 29%, Supra du Quebec 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: HFX Wanderers FC €183K, Supra du Quebec €213K.
- Home advantage makes HFX Wanderers FC the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. HFX Wanderers FC goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: HFX Wanderers FC 1520 · Supra du Quebec 1524
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
HFX Wanderers FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1695
Supra du Quebec · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1656
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
HFX Wanderers FC
6th in Canadian Premier League · 28 pts from 27
- 17 OctLVancouver FC Canada Premier League1544
- 12 OctDCavalry FC Canada Premier League1567
- 3 OctDForge Canada Premier League1541
- 26 SepLAtlético Ottawa Canada Premier League1565
- 20 SepWYork United Canada Premier League1502
Supra du Quebec
5th in Canadian Premier League · 35 pts from 27
- 16 OctWYork United Canada Premier League1547
- 10 OctDVancouver FC Canada Premier League1530
- 7 OctWYork United Canada Premier League1450
- 4 OctWPacific FC Canada Premier League1452
- 26 SepLCavalry FC Canada Premier League1437
Season outlook
From the Canadian Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HFX Wanderers FC | 28 /27 | 29.5 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 6th |
| Supra du Quebec | 35 /27 | 36.2 | 0% | 19% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 8th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.