Canadian Premier League · Group Stage
HFX Wanderers FC 2–2 Cavalry FC
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Wanderers Grounds, Halifax
HFX Wanderers FCTeam 1517
Cavalry FCTeam 1598Match story
HFX Wanderers FC · draw · Cavalry FCBefore kick-off: 35% · 28% · 37%
Last reading, 90+8': 0% · 100% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Caniggia Elva 40'
- Ali Musse 55'
We gave Cavalry FC 37% to win: it ended in a draw.
- Jason Bahamboula 1527 0 assist Miguel Arilla Guinot 1416 06'
HFX Wanderers FC:Jason Bahamboula 1527 0 assist Miguel Arilla Guinot 1416 0 - 32'Daan Klomp 1667 −1
Cavalry FC:Daan Klomp 1667 −1 - 34'E. Kobza 1630 0
Cavalry FC:E. Kobza 1630 0 - 40'Caniggia Elva 1481 −9*
Cavalry FC:Caniggia Elva 1481 −9* - 55'Ali Musse 1566 −2 assist Tobias Warschewski 1638 −1
Cavalry FC:Ali Musse 1566 −2 assist Tobias Warschewski 1638 −1 - S. Zitman 1537 0 for Lucas Olguin 1411 060'
HFX Wanderers FC:S. Zitman 1537 0 for Lucas Olguin 1411 0 - Nelson Pierre 1145 0 for Liam MacKenzie 1510 069'
HFX Wanderers FC:Nelson Pierre 1145 0 for Liam MacKenzie 1510 0 - S. Zitman 1537 071'
HFX Wanderers FC:S. Zitman 1537 0 - 72'B. Kamdem 1555 −3
Cavalry FC:B. Kamdem 1555 −3 - Yohan Bai 1259 −2 for I. Johnston 1655 −8*75'
HFX Wanderers FC:Yohan Bai 1259 −2 for I. Johnston 1655 −8* - A. Reid 1443 0 for Miguel Arilla Guinot 1416 075'
HFX Wanderers FC:A. Reid 1443 0 for Miguel Arilla Guinot 1416 0 - Tavio Ciccarelli 1185 0 for Jefferson Alphonse 1630 075'
HFX Wanderers FC:Tavio Ciccarelli 1185 0 for Jefferson Alphonse 1630 0 - 76'Goteh Ntignee 1625 −8* for Ali Musse 1566 −2
Cavalry FC:Goteh Ntignee 1625 −8* for Ali Musse 1566 −2 - 77'Harrison Paton 1633 −1
Cavalry FC:Harrison Paton 1633 −1 - 80'Maël Henry 1428 0 for Caniggia Elva 1481 −9*
Cavalry FC:Maël Henry 1428 0 for Caniggia Elva 1481 −9* - 90'Curtis Ofori 1591 0 for Nathaniel Edwards 1634 0
Cavalry FC:Curtis Ofori 1591 0 for Nathaniel Edwards 1634 0 - Thomas Meilleur Giguère 1587 −1 assist Ryan Telfer 1456 −590+2'
HFX Wanderers FC:Thomas Meilleur Giguère 1587 −1 assist Ryan Telfer 1456 −5 - Lorenzo Callegari 1695 −190+7'
HFX Wanderers FC:Lorenzo Callegari 1695 −1
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 35% · 28% · 37%(HFX Wanderers FC · draw · Cavalry FC)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–2 had 6%.
- Average value of the starting XI: HFX Wanderers FC €211K, Cavalry FC €291K.
- Home advantage made HFX Wanderers FC the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
- Canadian Premier League: L. Callegari was the highest-rated midfielder (1697).
- Style contrast in attacking (Canadian Premier League): HFX Wanderers FC ranked #4 of 7, Cavalry FC #1.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
HFX Wanderers FC
6th in Canadian Premier League · 27 pts from 25
- 3 OctDForge Canada Premier League1541
- 26 SepLAtlético Ottawa Canada Premier League1565
- 20 SepWYork United Canada Premier League1502
- 12 SepWSupra du Quebec Canada Premier League1478
- 7 SepLCavalry FC Canada Premier League1464
Cavalry FC
1st in Canadian Premier League · 53 pts from 25
- 3 OctLYork United Canada Premier League1560
- 30 SepLAtlético Ottawa Canada Premier League1656
- 26 SepWSupra du Quebec Canada Premier League1534
- 19 SepDForge Canada Premier League1636
- 13 SepWPacific FC Canada Premier League1578
Season outlook
From the Canadian Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HFX Wanderers FC | 27 /25 | 31.6 | 0% | 9% | 77% | 6th |
| Cavalry FC | 53 /25 | 58.4 | 84% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 8th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

HFX Wanderers FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1697

Cavalry FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1638
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
HFX Wanderers FC: balanced profile (how Vanni Sartini plays) · Cavalry FC: creative (how Tommy Wheeldon Jr. plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.