Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 10
Heracles 3–0 Waalwijk
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Polman Stadion, Armello
HeraclesTeam 1614WaalwijkTeam 1619We gave Heracles 43% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 43% · 24% · 33%(Heracles · draw · Waalwijk)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (10%); the result 3–0 had 3%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Heracles €457K, Waalwijk €483K.
- Home advantage made Heracles the favourite: it added 5 points to their win chance.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Heracles
1st in Eerste Divisie · 22 pts from 9
- 2 OctDHelmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie1681
- 26 SepWVitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie1650
- 18 SepLAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1654
- 11 SepWJong AZ Netherlands Eerste Divisie1614
- 4 SepWDe Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie1565
Waalwijk
7th in Eerste Divisie · 14 pts from 9
- 3 OctDEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1602
- 26 SepLRoda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1626
- 18 SepWMVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie1651
- 11 SepWJong Ajax Netherlands Eerste Divisie1627
- 4 SepWNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1609
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles | 22 /9 | 63.6 | 19% | 67% | <1% | 2nd |
| Waalwijk | 14 /9 | 55.5 | 3% | 22% | 2% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Heracles · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1802
Waalwijk · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1734
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Heracles: direct (how Vincent Heilmann plays) · Waalwijk: balanced profile (how Sander Duits plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.