Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 14
Heracles vs Roda
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Asito Stadium, Almelo
Heracles host Roda on Fri 6 Nov 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Heracles 45%, draw 28%, Roda 27%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Heracles €471K, Roda €373K.
- Style contrast in attacking (Eerste Divisie): Heracles rank #18 of 20, Roda #3.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Heracles goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.7 pts
Team Elo: Heracles 1692 · Roda 1638
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Heracles · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Elite) · Elo 1706
Roda · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 1729
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Heracles
1st in Eerste Divisie · 28 pts from 11
- 18 OctWMVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie1626
- 9 OctWWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1664
- 2 OctDHelmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie1681
- 26 SepWVitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie1650
- 18 SepLAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1654
Roda
6th in Eerste Divisie · 19 pts from 11
- 19 OctWJong Utrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1624
- 9 OctDJong PSV U21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie1618
- 4 OctLVVV Venlo Netherlands Eerste Divisie1614
- 26 SepWWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1629
- 18 SepDJong Ajax Netherlands Eerste Divisie1674
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles | 28 /11 | 69.7 | 41% | 88% | 0% | 1st |
| Roda | 19 /11 | 57.0 | 2% | 21% | 1% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct · high-pressing
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Heracles: direct (how Vincent Heilmann plays) · Roda: balanced profile (how Rob Penders plays)