Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 13
Heracles vs FC OSS
Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Asito Stadium, Almelo
Heracles host FC OSS on Mon 2 Nov 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Heracles 57%, draw 24%, FC OSS 18%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Heracles €488K, FC OSS €253K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Eerste Divisie matchday 13: 196 points.
- FC OSS's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Heracles goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.3 pts
Team Elo: Heracles 1693 · FC OSS 1497
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Heracles · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Elite) · Elo 1706
FC OSS · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1594
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Heracles
1st in Eerste Divisie · 28 pts from 11
- 18 OctWMVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie1626
- 9 OctWWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1664
- 2 OctDHelmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie1681
- 26 SepWVitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie1650
- 18 SepLAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1654
FC OSS
14th in Eerste Divisie · 12 pts from 11
- 16 OctLDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1547
- 9 OctWHelmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie1531
- 3 OctWMVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie1505
- 26 SepLEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1506
- 18 SepWDordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1449
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles | 28 /11 | 70.2 | 43% | 90% | 0% | 1st |
| FC OSS | 12 /11 | 41.5 | 0% | <1% | 43% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Heracles: direct (how Vincent Heilmann plays) · FC OSS: direct · low-volume (how Sjors Ultee plays)