Super League · Regular Season - 29
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 07:30 UTC · Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Zhengzhou
Henan Jianye host Beijing Guoan on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Super League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Henan Jianye 28%, draw 28%, Beijing Guoan 43%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Henan Jianye €303K, Beijing Guoan €601K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Super League matchday 29: 183 points.
- All 11 of Beijing Guoan's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Henan Jianye goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–09%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Henan Jianye 1654 · Beijing Guoan 1837
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Henan Jianye · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1684
Beijing Guoan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.3 (Elite) · Elo 1894
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Henan Jianye
14th in Super League · 28 pts from 28
- 16 OctLTianjin Teda Chinese Super League1672
- 9 OctDSichuan Jiuniu Chinese Super League1643
- 12 SepDWuhan Three Towns Chinese Super League1661
- 6 SepDChengdu Better City Chinese Super League1670
- 29 AugDChongqing Tongliang Long Chinese Super League1705
Beijing Guoan
3rd in Super League · 44 pts from 28
- 18 OctWQingdao Youth Island Chinese Super League1853
- 13 OctWBuriram United AFC Champions League1746
- 9 OctWQingdao Jonoon Chinese Super League1838
- 15 SepWPohang Steelers AFC Champions League1716
- 5 SepDShanghai SIPG Chinese Super League1739
Season outlook
From the Super League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henan Jianye | 28 /28 | 30.2 | 0% | 0% | 46% | 14th |
| Beijing Guoan | 44 /28 | 47.8 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Henan Jianye: balanced profile (how Daniel António Lopes Ramos plays) · Beijing Guoan: possession-based (how Nick Montgomery plays)