Premier League · Regular Season - 9
Hamrun Spartans vs Balzan FC
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Centenary Stadium
Hamrun Spartans host Balzan FC on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Hamrun Spartans 57%, draw 25%, Balzan FC 19%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Hamrun Spartans €276K, Balzan FC €122K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Premier League matchday 9: 186 points.
- Premier League: H. Bonello is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1568).
- M. García, D. Bulevardi and M. El Fanis (Hamrun Spartans) have not played for over 90 days.
- S. Arab and N. Pulis (Balzan FC) have not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Hamrun Spartans goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Hamrun Spartans 1449 · Balzan FC 1263
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; Hamrun Spartans from last season's line-ups (latest 15 March 2026).
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Hamrun Spartans · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Elite) · Elo 1544
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Hamrun Spartans
5th in Premier League · 12 pts from 8
- 29 AugDFloriana Malta Premier League1477
- 16 JulLNSI Runavik UEFA Conference League1444
- 9 JulDNSI Runavik UEFA Conference League1439
- 15 MarLMosta Malta Premier League1522
- 8 MarWBirkirkara Malta Premier League1440
Balzan FC
7th in Premier League · 10 pts from 8
- 14 AugDMarsaxlokk Malta Premier League1270
- 3 MayDNaxxar Lions Malta Premier League1258
- 27 AprDHibernians Malta Premier League1252
- 19 AprDZabbar St. Patrick Malta Premier League1267
- 13 AprWMelita Malta Premier League1260
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamrun Spartans | 12 /8 | 16.7 | 1% | 42% | 1% | 4th |
| Balzan FC | 10 /8 | 13.4 | 0% | 6% | 14% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –