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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6

Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Volksparkstadion, Hamburger

Hamburger SV crestHamburger SVTeam 1968
1–0
Full time
HT 0–0
VfB Stuttgart crestVfB StuttgartTeam 2154

Match story

Hamburger SV · draw · VfB Stuttgart

Before kick-off: 27% · 26% · 47%

Live chances: Hamburger SV 100%, draw 0%, VfB Stuttgart 0% at 90+10'1' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 26%, VfB Stuttgart 47%2' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 26%, VfB Stuttgart 47%3' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 26%, VfB Stuttgart 47%4' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 26%, VfB Stuttgart 47%5' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 26%, VfB Stuttgart 47%6' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 26%, VfB Stuttgart 47%7' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 26%, VfB Stuttgart 47%8' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 27%, VfB Stuttgart 47%9' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 27%, VfB Stuttgart 47%10' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 27%, VfB Stuttgart 46%11' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 27%, VfB Stuttgart 46%12' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 27%, VfB Stuttgart 46%13' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 27%, VfB Stuttgart 46%14' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 27%, VfB Stuttgart 46%15' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 27%, VfB Stuttgart 46%16' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 28%, VfB Stuttgart 46%17' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 28%, VfB Stuttgart 45%18' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 28%, VfB Stuttgart 45%19' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 28%, VfB Stuttgart 45%20' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 28%, VfB Stuttgart 45%21' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 28%, VfB Stuttgart 45%22' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 29%, VfB Stuttgart 45%23' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 29%, VfB Stuttgart 45%24' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 29%, VfB Stuttgart 44%25' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 29%, VfB Stuttgart 44%26' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 29%, VfB Stuttgart 44%27' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 29%, VfB Stuttgart 44%28' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 30%, VfB Stuttgart 44%29' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 30%, VfB Stuttgart 44%30' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 30%, VfB Stuttgart 43%31' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 30%, VfB Stuttgart 43%32' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 30%, VfB Stuttgart 43%33' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 31%, VfB Stuttgart 43%34' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 27%, draw 31%, VfB Stuttgart 43%35' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 31%, VfB Stuttgart 42%36' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 31%, VfB Stuttgart 42%37' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 32%, VfB Stuttgart 42%38' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 32%, VfB Stuttgart 42%39' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 32%, VfB Stuttgart 42%40' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 32%, VfB Stuttgart 41%41' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 33%, VfB Stuttgart 41%42' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 33%, VfB Stuttgart 41%43' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 33%, VfB Stuttgart 41%44' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 34%, VfB Stuttgart 40%45' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 34%, VfB Stuttgart 40%45+1' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 34%, VfB Stuttgart 40%45+2' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 34%, VfB Stuttgart 40%HT · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 35%, VfB Stuttgart 39%46' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 35%, VfB Stuttgart 39%47' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 35%, VfB Stuttgart 39%48' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 26%, draw 36%, VfB Stuttgart 39%49' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 25%, draw 36%, VfB Stuttgart 38%50' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 25%, draw 37%, VfB Stuttgart 38%51' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 25%, draw 37%, VfB Stuttgart 38%52' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 25%, draw 38%, VfB Stuttgart 37%53' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 25%, draw 38%, VfB Stuttgart 37%54' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 25%, draw 39%, VfB Stuttgart 37%55' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 25%, draw 39%, VfB Stuttgart 36%56' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 24%, draw 40%, VfB Stuttgart 36%57' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 24%, draw 40%, VfB Stuttgart 35%58' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 24%, draw 41%, VfB Stuttgart 35%59' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 24%, draw 42%, VfB Stuttgart 35%60' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 24%, draw 42%, VfB Stuttgart 34%61' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 23%, draw 43%, VfB Stuttgart 34%62' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 23%, draw 44%, VfB Stuttgart 33%63' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 23%, draw 44%, VfB Stuttgart 33%64' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 23%, draw 45%, VfB Stuttgart 32%65' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 22%, draw 46%, VfB Stuttgart 32%66' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 22%, draw 47%, VfB Stuttgart 31%67' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 22%, draw 47%, VfB Stuttgart 31%68' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 22%, draw 48%, VfB Stuttgart 30%69' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 21%, draw 49%, VfB Stuttgart 30%70' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 21%, draw 50%, VfB Stuttgart 29%71' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 21%, draw 51%, VfB Stuttgart 29%72' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 20%, draw 52%, VfB Stuttgart 28%73' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 20%, draw 53%, VfB Stuttgart 27%74' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 19%, draw 54%, VfB Stuttgart 27%75' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 19%, draw 55%, VfB Stuttgart 26%76' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 19%, draw 56%, VfB Stuttgart 25%77' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 18%, draw 57%, VfB Stuttgart 25%78' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 18%, draw 59%, VfB Stuttgart 24%79' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 17%, draw 60%, VfB Stuttgart 23%80' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 16%, draw 61%, VfB Stuttgart 22%81' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 16%, draw 63%, VfB Stuttgart 21%82' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 15%, draw 64%, VfB Stuttgart 20%83' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 15%, draw 66%, VfB Stuttgart 19%84' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 14%, draw 67%, VfB Stuttgart 19%85' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 13%, draw 69%, VfB Stuttgart 17%86' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 13%, draw 71%, VfB Stuttgart 16%87' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 12%, draw 73%, VfB Stuttgart 15%88' · 0–0 · Hamburger SV 11%, draw 75%, VfB Stuttgart 14%89' · 1–0 · Hamburger SV 87%, draw 12%, VfB Stuttgart 1%90' · 1–0 · Hamburger SV 88%, draw 11%, VfB Stuttgart 1%90+1' · 1–0 · Hamburger SV 90%, draw 10%, VfB Stuttgart 1%90+2' · 1–0 · Hamburger SV 91%, draw 8%, VfB Stuttgart 0%90+3' · 1–0 · Hamburger SV 93%, draw 7%, VfB Stuttgart 0%90+4' · 1–0 · Hamburger SV 95%, draw 5%, VfB Stuttgart 0%90+5' · 1–0 · Hamburger SV 97%, draw 3%, VfB Stuttgart 0%90+6' · 1–0 · Hamburger SV 99%, draw 1%, VfB Stuttgart 0%90+7' · 1–0 · Hamburger SV 100%, draw 0%, VfB Stuttgart 0%90+8' · 1–0 · Hamburger SV 100%, draw 0%, VfB Stuttgart 0%90+9' · 1–0 · Hamburger SV 100%, draw 0%, VfB Stuttgart 0%90+10' · 1–0 · Hamburger SV 100%, draw 0%, VfB Stuttgart 0%

Last reading, 90+10': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave VfB Stuttgart 47% to win: Hamburger SV won.

  1. 54'Hamburger SV:Warmed Omari 2139 +57
  2. 61'Hamburger SV:Otto Emerson Stange 1705 +15 for Yussuf Poulsen 1996 +15
  3. 67'VfB Stuttgart:Chris Führich 2206 −7 for Bilal El Khannouss 2260 −22
  4. 67'VfB Stuttgart:Grischa Prömel 2097 −4 for Atakan Karazor 2130 −5
  5. 77'VfB Stuttgart:Leo Sauer 1954 0 for Jamie Leweling 2226 −8
  6. 77'VfB Stuttgart:Dženan Pejčinović 1823 0 for Ermedin Demirović 2195 −7
  7. 78'Hamburger SV:Zakaria El Ouahdi 2120 −1* for Louis Pepe Lemke 1826 +35
  8. 78'Hamburger SV:Terem Moffi 2026 +3 for Fábio Vieira 2151 +16
  9. 78'Hamburger SV:Albert Grönbaek 2046 −4* for Martin Adeline 1986 +73
  10. 82'Hamburger SV:Nicolás Capaldo 2118 +20
  11. 84'Hamburger SV:Kofi Jeremy Amoako 1793 +4 for Bilal Nadir 1792 +110*
  12. 85'Hamburger SV:Otto Emerson Stange 1705 +15
  13. 88'Hamburger SV:Miro Muheim 2108 +61 assist Zakaria El Ouahdi 2120 −1*
  14. 89'VfB Stuttgart:Lorenz Assignon 2185 0 for Ramon Hendriks 2196 −20

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-5-2Formations4-2-3-1
GDaniel Heuer Fernandes2105+61
DN. Capaldo2118+20
DS. Bornauw2120+60
DW. Omari2139+57
MD. Møller Wolfe2270+11
MM. Adeline1986+73
MB. Nadir1792+110*
MM. Muheim2108+61
ML. Lemke1826+35
FY. Poulsen1996+15
FFábio Vieira2151+16
CM. Polzin2153+35
GD. Seimen20180
DJ. Vagnoman2182−18
DFinn Jeltsch2203−22
DJ. Chabot2218−25
DR. Hendriks2196−20
MA. Karazor2130−5
MA. Stiller2231−27
MJ. Leweling2226−8
MD. Undav2236−12
MB. El Khannouss2260−22
FE. Demirović2195−7
CS. Hoeneb2207−15
Before kick-off: 27% · 26% · 47%(Hamburger SV · draw · VfB Stuttgart)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 1–0 had 5%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Hamburger SV €6.4M, VfB Stuttgart €17.1M.
  • Hamburger SV were without 1 expected starter: N. Remberg (2088).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Hamburger SV

13th in Bundesliga · 6 pts from 5

  • 10 OctW1899 Hoffenheim 2026
  • 19 SepW1. FC Köln 2056
  • 13 SepLRB Leipzig 2015
  • 6 SepLFSV Mainz 05 2017
  • 29 AugLBorussia Dortmund 1991

VfB Stuttgart

12th in Bundesliga · 6 pts from 5

  • 14 OctWSlovan Bratislava 2156
  • 10 OctWSC Paderborn 07 2183
  • 19 SepLBorussia Dortmund 2190
  • 12 SepL1899 Hoffenheim 2147
  • 9 SepWViking 2191

Season outlook

From the Bundesliga simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Hamburger SV6 /543.10%1%8%9th
VfB Stuttgart6 /552.9<1%21%<1%6th
Hamburger SV
VfB Stuttgart

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Bundesliga

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Fábio Vieira
Fábio Vieira

Hamburger SV · +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2135

J. Chabot
J. Chabot

VfB Stuttgart · +2.2 (Good) · Elo 2243

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Merlin Polzin

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Sebastian Hoeneß

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Hamburger SV: balanced profile (how Merlin Polzin plays) · VfB Stuttgart: possession-based · creative (how Sebastian Hoeneß plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.