K League 1 · Regular Season - 31
Gwangju FC 4–3 Ulsan Hyundai FC
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 05:00 UTC · Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju
Gwangju FCTeam 1432Ulsan Hyundai FCTeam 1676- Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua 36', 77'
- John Iredale 39'
- Shin Chang-moo 66'
- Yago Cariello Ribeiro 30'
- Kim Young-Gwon 43'
- Yago Cariello Ribeiro 90+7' (pen)
We gave Ulsan Hyundai FC 49% to win: Gwangju FC won.
- 30'Yago Cariello Ribeiro – assist Darijan Bojanić –Ulsan Hyundai FC:Yago Cariello Ribeiro – assist Darijan Bojanić –
- Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua – assist Ha Seung-un –36'Gwangju FC:Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua – assist Ha Seung-un –
- John Iredale – assist Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua –39'Gwangju FC:John Iredale – assist Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua –
- 43'Kim Young-Gwon – assist Lee Dong-gyeong –Ulsan Hyundai FC:Kim Young-Gwon – assist Lee Dong-gyeong –
- 45'Miłosz Trojak – for Choi Seok-hyeon –Ulsan Hyundai FC:Miłosz Trojak – for Choi Seok-hyeon –
- Moon Min-Seo – for Ha Seung-un –64'Gwangju FC:Moon Min-Seo – for Ha Seung-un –
- Shin Chang-moo – assist Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua –66'Gwangju FC:Shin Chang-moo – assist Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua –
- Ju Se-Jong – for Choi Kyoung-Rok –76'Gwangju FC:Ju Se-Jong – for Choi Kyoung-Rok –
- Park Won-Jae – for Min Sang-gi –76'Gwangju FC:Park Won-Jae – for Min Sang-gi –
- Ahn Young-Kyu – for Kwon Sung-yun –76'Gwangju FC:Ahn Young-Kyu – for Kwon Sung-yun –
- Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua – assist Lee Min-Ki –77'Gwangju FC:Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua – assist Lee Min-Ki –
- 78'Lee Gyu-sung – for Darijan Bojanić –Ulsan Hyundai FC:Lee Gyu-sung – for Darijan Bojanić –
- 83'Lee Jin-Hyun – for Erick Farias –Ulsan Hyundai FC:Lee Jin-Hyun – for Erick Farias –
- 83'Yoon Jong-Gyu – for Jang Si-young –Ulsan Hyundai FC:Yoon Jong-Gyu – for Jang Si-young –
- 88'Lee Hui-gyun – for Lee Dong-gyeong –Ulsan Hyundai FC:Lee Hui-gyun – for Lee Dong-gyeong –
- Ri Yong-jik – for Teun van Grunsven –89'Gwangju FC:Ri Yong-jik – for Teun van Grunsven –
- Kim Dong-Hwa –90+4'Gwangju FC:Kim Dong-Hwa –
- 90+7'Yago Cariello Ribeiro – (pen.)Ulsan Hyundai FC:Yago Cariello Ribeiro – (pen.)
Before kick-off (provisional): 24% · 27% · 49%(Gwangju FC · draw · Ulsan Hyundai FC)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 4–3 had <1%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Gwangju FC €224K, Ulsan Hyundai FC €517K.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Gwangju FC
12th in K League 1 · 15 pts from 30
- 20 SepDJeonbuk Motors K League 11439
- 13 SepDFC Anyang K League 11383
- 9 SepLJeju United FC K League 11404
- 6 SepDGimcheon Sangmu FC K League 11401
- 30 AugLFC Seoul K League 11386
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2nd in K League 1 · 47 pts from 30
- 19 SepLFC Anyang K League 11656
- 12 SepWIncheon United K League 11632
- 8 SepWFC Seoul K League 11633
- 5 SepDJeju United FC K League 11643
- 29 AugWGimcheon Sangmu FC K League 11645
Season outlook
From the K League 1 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC | 15 /30 | 17.6 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 12th |
| Ulsan Hyundai FC | 47 /30 | 52.5 | 0% | 98% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Gwangju FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1494
Ulsan Hyundai FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1728
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Gwangju FC: balanced profile (how Jeong-kyu Lee plays) · Ulsan Hyundai FC: possession-based (how Hyun-Seok Kim plays)