K League 1 · Relegation Group - 34
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 07:30 UTC · Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju
Gwangju FC host Gimcheon Sangmu FC on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (K League 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Gwangju FC 35%, draw 29%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 36%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Gwangju FC €267K, Gimcheon Sangmu FC €342K.
- Style contrast in attacking (K League 1): Gwangju FC rank #12 of 13, Gimcheon Sangmu FC #2.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Gwangju FC goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 0–19%
- 1–09%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Gwangju FC 1495 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1573
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Gwangju FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Elite) · Elo 1592
Gimcheon Sangmu FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1636
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Gwangju FC
12th in K League 1 · 21 pts from 33
- 24 OctWBucheon FC 1995 K League 11454
- 18 OctLDaejeon Citizen K League 11497
- 11 OctWUlsan Hyundai FC K League 11470
- 20 SepDJeonbuk Motors K League 11439
- 13 SepDFC Anyang K League 11383
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
10th in K League 1 · 34 pts from 33
- 24 OctLDaejeon Citizen K League 11553
- 18 OctDFC Seoul K League 11569
- 10 OctLFC Anyang K League 11528
- 19 SepWBucheon FC 1995 K League 11573
- 13 SepDGangwon FC K League 11524
Season outlook
From the K League 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC | 21 /33 | 26.9 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 12th |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 34 /33 | 41.3 | 0% | 0% | 94% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Gwangju FC: balanced profile (how Jeong-kyu Lee plays) · Gimcheon Sangmu FC: balanced profile (how Seung-jin Joo plays)