K League 1 · Relegation Group - 36
Gwangju FC vs Bucheon FC 1995
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 05:00 UTC · Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju
Gwangju FC host Bucheon FC 1995 on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (K League 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Gwangju FC 44%, draw 28%, Bucheon FC 1995 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Gwangju FC €286K, Bucheon FC 1995 €268K.
- Bucheon FC 1995's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.2 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Gwangju FC goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 0–18%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Gwangju FC 1485 · Bucheon FC 1995 1456
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Gwangju FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1559
Bucheon FC 1995 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.6 (Good) · Elo 1452
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Gwangju FC
12th in K League 1 · 21 pts from 33
- 7 NovDJeju United FC K League 11479
- 31 OctDGimcheon Sangmu FC K League 11512
- 24 OctWBucheon FC 1995 K League 11444
- 18 OctLDaejeon Citizen K League 11488
- 11 OctWUlsan Hyundai FC K League 11460
Bucheon FC 1995
11th in K League 1 · 32 pts from 33
- 8 NovDPohang Steelers K League 11466
- 1 NovLFC Anyang K League 11473
- 24 OctLGwangju FC K League 11476
- 17 OctLUlsan Hyundai FC K League 11446
- 9 OctLGangwon FC K League 11471
Season outlook
From the K League 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC | 23 /35 | 26.6 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 12th |
| Bucheon FC 1995 | 33 /35 | 36.4 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –