Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 11
Guingamp vs Saint Etienne
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp
Guingamp host Saint Etienne on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Ligue 2); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Guingamp 18%, draw 24%, Saint Etienne 57%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Guingamp €375K, Saint Etienne €2.0M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Ligue 2 matchday 11: 343 points.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Guingamp goals first.
- 1–112%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–110%
- 0–07%
- 0–36%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Guingamp 1519 · Saint Etienne 1862
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Guingamp · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1611
Saint Etienne · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1913
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Guingamp
13th in Ligue 2 · 8 pts from 9
- 16 OctLPAU France Ligue 21473
- 9 OctLNancy France Ligue 21531
- 19 SepLRED Star FC 93 France Ligue 21546
- 12 SepWAnnecy France Ligue 21475
- 5 SepDReims France Ligue 21463
Saint Etienne
1st in Ligue 2 · 22 pts from 9
- 17 OctWRED Star FC 93 France Ligue 21876
- 10 OctWRodez France Ligue 21865
- 19 SepDMetz France Ligue 21871
- 12 SepLDunkerque France Ligue 21878
- 5 SepWMontpellier France Ligue 21860
Season outlook
From the Ligue 2 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp | 8 /9 | 35.5 | 0% | <1% | 46% | 17th |
| Saint Etienne | 22 /9 | 69.3 | 76% | 99% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Guingamp: balanced profile (how Sylvain Ripoll plays) · Saint Etienne: balanced profile (how Ian Cathro plays)