Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 9
Guingamp 1–2 PAU
Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp
GuingampTeam 1444PAUTeam 1566We gave PAU 39% to win: they did.
- 6'Cheikh Fall 1575 +63 assist Lorenzo Rajot 1612 +55PAU:Cheikh Fall 1575 +63 assist Lorenzo Rajot 1612 +55
- 13'Anthony Briançon 1668 +4PAU:Anthony Briançon 1668 +4
- 25'Gaëtan Paquiez 1644 +13PAU:Gaëtan Paquiez 1644 +13
- 33'Bilal Brahimi 1656 +23* assist Anthony Briançon 1668 +4PAU:Bilal Brahimi 1656 +23* assist Anthony Briançon 1668 +4
- 45'Rony Ulrich Jordan·Mimb Baheng 1771 +5 for Anthony Briançon 1668 +4PAU:Rony Ulrich Jordan·Mimb Baheng 1771 +5 for Anthony Briançon 1668 +4
- Brandon Bokangu 1583 −4 for Tanguy Ahile 1541 −245'Guingamp:Brandon Bokangu 1583 −4 for Tanguy Ahile 1541 −2
- Amadou Samoura 1332 0 for Tuomas Ollila 1610 −657'Guingamp:Amadou Samoura 1332 0 for Tuomas Ollila 1610 −6
- Florent Sanchez Da Silva 1533 −1 for Tom Ducrocq 1633 −857'Guingamp:Florent Sanchez Da Silva 1533 −1 for Tom Ducrocq 1633 −8
- 62'Jeremy Sebas 1551 +7 for Bilal Brahimi 1656 +23*PAU:Jeremy Sebas 1551 +7 for Bilal Brahimi 1656 +23*
- 66'Luan Gadegbeku 1586 −2* for Hacene Benali 1627 +13PAU:Luan Gadegbeku 1586 −2* for Hacene Benali 1627 +13
- 66'Jeremy Sebas 1551 +7PAU:Jeremy Sebas 1551 +7
- Dylan Louiserre 1593 −6 for Stanislas Kielt 1284 067'Guingamp:Dylan Louiserre 1593 −6 for Stanislas Kielt 1284 0
- Nathan Fondja 1330 −8*74'Guingamp:Nathan Fondja 1330 −8*
- Ibrahim Fomba for Nathan Fondja 1330 −8*74'Guingamp:Ibrahim Fomba for Nathan Fondja 1330 −8*
- Teddy Andami Averlant 1506 −375'Guingamp:Teddy Andami Averlant 1506 −3
- 80'Abdoulaye Mbaye 1376 −4* for Babacar Leye 1172 +44PAU:Abdoulaye Mbaye 1376 −4* for Babacar Leye 1172 +44
- 80'Abdel Hakim Abdallah 1691 0 for Tom Pouilly 1692 +17PAU:Abdel Hakim Abdallah 1691 0 for Tom Pouilly 1692 +17
- Jeovanni Dianganga 1479 083'Guingamp:Jeovanni Dianganga 1479 0
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 32% · 29% · 39%(Guingamp · draw · PAU)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–2 had 9%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Guingamp €341K, PAU €401K.
- Home advantage made Guingamp the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Guingamp
11th in Ligue 2 · 8 pts from 8
- 9 OctLNancy France Ligue 21531
- 19 SepLRED Star FC 93 France Ligue 21546
- 12 SepWAnnecy France Ligue 21475
- 5 SepDReims France Ligue 21463
- 29 AugDNantes France Ligue 21439
PAU
8th in Ligue 2 · 11 pts from 8
- 9 OctWLaval France Ligue 21542
- 18 SepWDunkerque France Ligue 21503
- 11 SepLMontpellier France Ligue 21494
- 4 SepDSochaux France Ligue 21519
- 28 AugDRodez France Ligue 21574
Season outlook
From the Ligue 2 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp | 8 /8 | 37.2 | 0% | <1% | 34% | 16th |
| PAU | 11 /8 | 42.9 | 0% | 3% | 10% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Guingamp · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1623
PAU · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1663
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: low-block
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Guingamp: balanced profile (how Sylvain Ripoll plays) · PAU: balanced profile (how Thierry Debès plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.