Liga MX · Apertura - 13
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 00:07 UTC · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Guadalajara Chivas host Necaxa on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (Liga MX); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Guadalajara Chivas 61%, draw 23%, Necaxa 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Guadalajara Chivas €4.0M, Necaxa €2.0M.
- Liga MX: J. Rangel is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2235).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Guadalajara Chivas goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Guadalajara Chivas 2030 · Necaxa 1838
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Guadalajara Chivas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2205
Necaxa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1690
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Guadalajara Chivas
4th in Liga MX · 20 pts from 12
- 17 OctDTigres UANL Liga MX2002
- 11 OctDAtlas Liga MX2023
- 26 SepLClub Queretaro Liga MX1997
- 20 SepDClub America Liga MX2078
- 14 SepWU.N.A.M. - Pumas Liga MX2007
Necaxa
17th in Liga MX · 9 pts from 12
- 17 OctLAtlas Liga MX1801
- 11 OctDCF Pachuca Liga MX1797
- 28 SepLClub America Liga MX1808
- 19 SepLAtletico San Luis Liga MX1834
- 12 SepLPuebla Liga MX1830
Season outlook
From the Liga MX simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 20 /12 | 28.4 | 5% | 53% | 0% | 3rd |
| Necaxa | 9 /12 | 15.2 | 0% | 0% | 78% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Guadalajara Chivas: balanced profile (how Gabriel Alejandro Milito plays) · Necaxa: direct (how Martín Varini Di Zioli plays)