Liga MX · Apertura - 17
Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 23:07 UTC · Estadio Akron, Zapopan
Guadalajara Chivas host Cruz Azul on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Liga MX); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Guadalajara Chivas 41%, draw 29%, Cruz Azul 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Guadalajara Chivas €4.7M, Cruz Azul €5.0M.
- Home advantage makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite here: it adds 10 points to their win chance; Liga MX has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Liga MX: J. Rangel is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2267).
- Liga MX: G. Piovi is the highest-rated defender (2237).
- Style contrast in dribbling (Liga MX): Guadalajara Chivas rank #3 of 19, Cruz Azul #18.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Guadalajara Chivas goals first.
- 1–114%
- 2–19%
- 1–08%
- 1–27%
- 0–17%
- 0–07%
- Other scores48%
Team Elo: Guadalajara Chivas 2058 · Cruz Azul 2113
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Guadalajara Chivas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.2 (Elite) · Elo 2242
Cruz Azul · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 2199
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Guadalajara Chivas
3rd in Liga MX · 30 pts from 16
- 9 NovDLeon Liga MX2102
- 1 NovWAtlante FC Liga MX2099
- 25 OctWMonterrey Liga MX2040
- 21 OctWNecaxa Liga MX2017
- 17 OctDTigres UANL Liga MX1995
Cruz Azul
1st in Liga MX · 32 pts from 16
- 8 NovWTigres UANL Liga MX2122
- 2 NovWLeon Liga MX2093
- 26 OctWClub Queretaro Liga MX1998
- 22 OctWCF Pachuca Liga MX2058
- 18 OctWFC Juarez Liga MX2005
Season outlook
From the Liga MX simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 30 /16 | 31.5 | 26% | 100% | 0% | 3rd |
| Cruz Azul | 32 /16 | 33.2 | 49% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Guadalajara Chivas: balanced profile (how G. Milito plays) · Cruz Azul: balanced profile (how Joel Huiqui plays)