Primera División · Apertura - 22
Guabirá 1–1 Oriente Petrolero
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera, Santa Cruz de la Sierra
GuabiráTeam 1360Oriente PetroleroTeam 1415Match story
Guabirá · draw · Oriente PetroleroBefore kick-off: 37% · 28% · 34%
Last reading, 90+6': 1% · 98% · 1%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Milton Maciel 78' (pen)
We gave Guabirá 37% to win: it ended in a draw.
- 14'Mizael Sadoque Pinto Monteiro 1494 +4 assist Jorge Eduardo Lovera 1489 +1Oriente Petrolero:Mizael Sadoque Pinto Monteiro 1494 +4 assist Jorge Eduardo Lovera 1489 +1
- A. Moreno 1399 0 for Thiago Ribeiro 1017 −1921'Guabirá:A. Moreno 1399 0 for Thiago Ribeiro 1017 −19
- S. Gil 1415 −11*35'Guabirá:S. Gil 1415 −11*
- Denilso Fernandez Tokudome 1332 0 for S. Gil 1415 −11*45'Guabirá:Denilso Fernandez Tokudome 1332 0 for S. Gil 1415 −11*
- Pablo Andres Melgar Valverde 1389 −8* for Thiago Chavez 1232 045'Guabirá:Pablo Andres Melgar Valverde 1389 −8* for Thiago Chavez 1232 0
- 45+3'José Flores 1425 +2Oriente Petrolero:José Flores 1425 +2
- J. Barro 1462 −149'Guabirá:J. Barro 1462 −1
- Makerlo Tellez 1308 0 for Victor Abrego 1444 −9*59'Guabirá:Makerlo Tellez 1308 0 for Victor Abrego 1444 −9*
- 62'Marco Fernando Velasco Pena 1431 −6*Oriente Petrolero:Marco Fernando Velasco Pena 1431 −6*
- Carlos Anez 1454 −472'Guabirá:Carlos Anez 1454 −4
- 73'Joffre·Escobar 1506 −2 for Jorge Eduardo Lovera 1489 +1Oriente Petrolero:Joffre·Escobar 1506 −2 for Jorge Eduardo Lovera 1489 +1
- 73'Fran Lopez for Omar Siles 1264 −11*Oriente Petrolero:Fran Lopez for Omar Siles 1264 −11*
- Milton Maciel 1270 −8* for Rafinha 1450 −775'Guabirá:Milton Maciel 1270 −8* for Rafinha 1450 −7
- 77'A. Torrez 1494 +1Oriente Petrolero:A. Torrez 1494 +1
- Milton Maciel 1270 −8* (pen.)78'Guabirá:Milton Maciel 1270 −8* (pen.)
- 87'Carlos Enrique Saucedo Céspedes 1234 0 for José Flores 1425 +2Oriente Petrolero:Carlos Enrique Saucedo Céspedes 1234 0 for José Flores 1425 +2
- Gustavo Peredo 1497 −190+4'Guabirá:Gustavo Peredo 1497 −1
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 37% · 28% · 34%(Guabirá · draw · Oriente Petrolero)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the starting XI: Guabirá €188K, Oriente Petrolero €198K.
- Home advantage made Guabirá the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
- Guabirá's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Guabirá
7th in Primera División · 29 pts from 21
- 12 OctLGualberto Villarroel SJ Bolivia Primera Division1404
- 16 SepWAurora Bolivia Primera Division1379
- 13 SepLAlways Ready Bolivia Primera Division1391
- 5 SepDReal Potosí Bolivia Primera Division1411
- 27 AugLIndependiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division1392
Oriente Petrolero
5th in Primera División · 33 pts from 21
- 10 OctWABB Bolivia Primera Division1410
- 17 SepWReal Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division1413
- 12 SepLReal Potosí Bolivia Primera Division1425
- 5 SepLAlways Ready Bolivia Primera Division1410
- 25 AugDGualberto Villarroel SJ Bolivia Primera Division1431
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guabirá | 29 /21 | 38.8 | 0% | 3% | <1% | 7th |
| Oriente Petrolero | 33 /21 | 42.0 | 0% | 16% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Guabirá · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1458
Oriente Petrolero · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1440
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Guabirá: direct (how Leonardo Eguez plays) · Oriente Petrolero: direct (how Gustavo Atilano Florentín Morinigo plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.