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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 9

Groningen 2–5 Ajax

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 14:45 UTC · Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen

Groningen crestGroningenTeam 1853
2–5
Full time
HT 0–2
Ajax crestAjaxTeam 2129

Match story

Groningen · draw · Ajax

Before kick-off: 22% · 25% · 53%

Live chances: Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100% at 90+5'2' · 0–0 · Groningen 22%, draw 25%, Ajax 53%3' · 0–0 · Groningen 22%, draw 25%, Ajax 53%4' · 0–0 · Groningen 22%, draw 25%, Ajax 53%5' · 0–0 · Groningen 22%, draw 25%, Ajax 53%6' · 0–0 · Groningen 22%, draw 25%, Ajax 52%7' · 0–0 · Groningen 22%, draw 25%, Ajax 52%8' · 0–0 · Groningen 22%, draw 26%, Ajax 52%9' · 0–0 · Groningen 22%, draw 26%, Ajax 52%10' · 0–0 · Groningen 22%, draw 26%, Ajax 52%11' · 0–0 · Groningen 22%, draw 26%, Ajax 52%12' · 0–0 · Groningen 22%, draw 26%, Ajax 52%13' · 0–0 · Groningen 22%, draw 26%, Ajax 51%14' · 0–0 · Groningen 22%, draw 26%, Ajax 51%15' · 0–0 · Groningen 22%, draw 27%, Ajax 51%16' · 0–0 · Groningen 23%, draw 27%, Ajax 51%17' · 0–0 · Groningen 23%, draw 27%, Ajax 51%18' · 0–0 · Groningen 23%, draw 27%, Ajax 50%19' · 0–0 · Groningen 23%, draw 27%, Ajax 50%20' · 0–0 · Groningen 23%, draw 27%, Ajax 50%21' · 0–0 · Groningen 23%, draw 28%, Ajax 50%22' · 0–0 · Groningen 23%, draw 28%, Ajax 50%23' · 0–0 · Groningen 23%, draw 28%, Ajax 49%24' · 0–0 · Groningen 23%, draw 28%, Ajax 49%25' · 0–0 · Groningen 23%, draw 28%, Ajax 49%26' · 0–0 · Groningen 23%, draw 28%, Ajax 49%27' · 0–0 · Groningen 23%, draw 29%, Ajax 49%28' · 0–1 · Groningen 10%, draw 19%, Ajax 71%29' · 0–1 · Groningen 10%, draw 19%, Ajax 71%30' · 0–1 · Groningen 10%, draw 19%, Ajax 71%31' · 0–1 · Groningen 10%, draw 19%, Ajax 71%32' · 0–1 · Groningen 10%, draw 19%, Ajax 71%33' · 0–1 · Groningen 10%, draw 19%, Ajax 71%34' · 0–1 · Groningen 10%, draw 19%, Ajax 71%35' · 0–1 · Groningen 10%, draw 19%, Ajax 71%36' · 0–1 · Groningen 9%, draw 19%, Ajax 71%37' · 0–1 · Groningen 9%, draw 20%, Ajax 71%38' · 0–2 · Groningen 2%, draw 6%, Ajax 92%39' · 0–2 · Groningen 2%, draw 6%, Ajax 92%40' · 0–2 · Groningen 2%, draw 6%, Ajax 92%41' · 0–2 · Groningen 2%, draw 6%, Ajax 92%42' · 0–2 · Groningen 2%, draw 6%, Ajax 92%43' · 0–2 · Groningen 2%, draw 6%, Ajax 92%44' · 0–2 · Groningen 1%, draw 6%, Ajax 92%45' · 0–2 · Groningen 1%, draw 6%, Ajax 93%45+1' · 0–2 · Groningen 1%, draw 6%, Ajax 93%45+2' · 0–2 · Groningen 1%, draw 6%, Ajax 93%45+3' · 0–2 · Groningen 1%, draw 6%, Ajax 93%45+4' · 0–2 · Groningen 1%, draw 6%, Ajax 93%HT · 0–2 · Groningen 1%, draw 6%, Ajax 93%46' · 0–2 · Groningen 1%, draw 6%, Ajax 93%47' · 0–2 · Groningen 1%, draw 6%, Ajax 93%48' · 0–2 · Groningen 1%, draw 6%, Ajax 93%49' · 0–2 · Groningen 1%, draw 5%, Ajax 93%50' · 1–2 · Groningen 8%, draw 20%, Ajax 72%51' · 1–2 · Groningen 7%, draw 20%, Ajax 73%52' · 1–2 · Groningen 7%, draw 20%, Ajax 73%54' · 1–2 · Groningen 7%, draw 20%, Ajax 73%56' · 1–2 · Groningen 7%, draw 20%, Ajax 74%57' · 1–3 · Groningen 1%, draw 5%, Ajax 95%58' · 1–3 · Groningen 1%, draw 4%, Ajax 95%59' · 1–2 · Groningen 6%, draw 20%, Ajax 74%60' · 1–2 · Groningen 6%, draw 20%, Ajax 74%61' · 1–3 · Groningen 1%, draw 4%, Ajax 95%62' · 1–3 · Groningen 1%, draw 4%, Ajax 95%63' · 1–3 · Groningen 1%, draw 4%, Ajax 96%64' · 1–3 · Groningen 1%, draw 4%, Ajax 96%65' · 1–3 · Groningen 1%, draw 4%, Ajax 96%66' · 1–3 · Groningen 0%, draw 3%, Ajax 96%67' · 1–3 · Groningen 0%, draw 3%, Ajax 96%68' · 1–3 · Groningen 0%, draw 3%, Ajax 96%69' · 1–3 · Groningen 0%, draw 3%, Ajax 97%70' · 1–4 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%71' · 1–4 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%72' · 1–4 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%73' · 1–4 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%74' · 1–4 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%75' · 1–4 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%76' · 1–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%77' · 1–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%78' · 1–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%79' · 1–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%80' · 1–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%81' · 1–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%82' · 1–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%83' · 1–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%84' · 2–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%85' · 2–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%86' · 2–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%87' · 2–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%88' · 2–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%89' · 2–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%90' · 2–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%90+1' · 2–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%90+2' · 2–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%90+3' · 2–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%90+4' · 2–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%90+5' · 2–5 · Groningen 0%, draw 0%, Ajax 100%

Last reading, 90+5': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Ajax 53% to win: they did.

  1. 10'Ajax:Davy Klaassen 2123 +34 (penalty missed)
  2. 27'Ajax:Julian Brandt 2299 +16
  3. 37'Ajax:Aaron Bouwman 2067 +51
  4. 40'Groningen:Thom Van Bergen 1980 −7
  5. 45+2'Ajax:Dies Janse 1971 +55*
  6. 49'Groningen:Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson 1875 0
  7. 60'Ajax:Julian Brandt 2299 +16 assist Owen Wijndal 2100 +47
  8. 67'Groningen:Mark Csinger 2067 −3 for Jacob Ondrejka 1917 −2
  9. 69'Ajax:Jorthy Mokio 2131 +43
  10. 74'Ajax:Abdellah Ouazane 1733 +6 for Julian Brandt 2299 +16
  11. 74'Ajax:Tolu Arokodare 2126 +3 for Marcos Leonardo Santos Almeida 2305 +7
  12. 75'Ajax:Jorthy Mokio 2131 +43 assist Davy Klaassen 2123 +34
  13. 82'Ajax:Rayane Bounida 1692 −4* for Oscar Gloukh 2183 +12
  14. 82'Ajax:Yves Bissouma 2199 −8* for Davy Klaassen 2123 +34
  15. 83'Groningen:Nils Eggens 1513 0 for Tika de Jonge 1871 0
  16. 83'Groningen:Tygo Land 1920 0 for Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson 1875 0
  17. 83'Groningen:Ryan Metu 1499 0 for David van der Werff 1915 −2
  18. 83'Groningen:Wouter Prins 1758 −8* for Marco Rente 1946 −6
  19. 83'Groningen:Thom Van Bergen 1980 −7
  20. 90'Ajax:Lucas Oliveira·Rosa 2203 +12
  21. 90+1'Groningen:Thom Van Bergen 1980 −7 (penalty missed)

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-3-3
GE. Vaessen1880−1
DJ. Schreuders1983−8
DT. Blokzijl1937−4
DM. Rente1946−6
DH. Hateboer1883−5
MT. de Jonge18710
MP. Clement1885−3
MD. van der Werff1915−2
MT. van Bergen1980−7
MJ. Ondrejka1917−2
FB. Willumsson18750
CD. Lukkien1925−6
GM. ter Stegen2291+6
DLucas Rosa2203+12
DA. Bouwman2067+51
DD. Janse1971+55*
DO. Wijndal2100+47
MD. Klaassen2123+34
MS. Amrabat2203+10
MJ. Mokio2131+43
FJ. Brandt2299+16
FMarcos Leonardo2305+7
FO. Gloukh2183+12
CMíchel2022+38
Before kick-off: 22% · 25% · 53%(Groningen · draw · Ajax)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 2–5 had 1%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Groningen €2.0M, Ajax €6.7M.
  • Ajax were without 3 expected starters: A. Gaaei (2173), Caio Henrique (2217) and S. Berghuis (2101).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Groningen

6th in Eredivisie · 14 pts from 8

  • 11 OctWExcelsior 1882
  • 18 SepWPEC Zwolle 1863
  • 12 SepDGO Ahead Eagles 1855
  • 6 SepDTwente 1860
  • 28 AugLFortuna Sittard 1873

Ajax

5th in Eredivisie · 15 pts from 8

  • 15 OctLHNK Hajduk Split 2076
  • 10 OctDNEC Nijmegen 2181
  • 19 SepDExcelsior 2179
  • 15 SepWWillem II 2137
  • 12 SepWFortuna Sittard 2149

Season outlook

From the Eredivisie simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Groningen14 /850.9<1%5%<1%6th
Ajax15 /866.915%84%0%3rd
Groningen
Ajax

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Eredivisie

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

T. van Bergen
T. van Bergen

Groningen · +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1987

Lucas Rosa
Lucas Rosa

Ajax · +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2191

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Dick Lukkien

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Miguel Ángel Carrilero González

Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Groningen: balanced profile (how Dick Lukkien plays) · Ajax: possession-based (how Miguel Ángel Carrilero González plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.