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Serie A · Regular Season - 31

Gremio 2–4 Cruzeiro

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre

Gremio crestGremioTeam 1880
2–4
Full time
HT 2–1
Cruzeiro crestCruzeiroTeam 2073

Match story

Gremio · draw · Cruzeiro

Before kick-off: 33% · 29% · 38%

Live chances: Gremio 0%, draw 0%, Cruzeiro 100% at 90+6'1' · 0–0 · Gremio 33%, draw 29%, Cruzeiro 38%2' · 0–0 · Gremio 33%, draw 29%, Cruzeiro 38%3' · 0–0 · Gremio 32%, draw 29%, Cruzeiro 38%4' · 0–0 · Gremio 32%, draw 29%, Cruzeiro 38%5' · 0–0 · Gremio 32%, draw 29%, Cruzeiro 38%6' · 0–0 · Gremio 32%, draw 29%, Cruzeiro 38%7' · 0–0 · Gremio 32%, draw 30%, Cruzeiro 38%8' · 0–0 · Gremio 32%, draw 30%, Cruzeiro 38%9' · 0–0 · Gremio 32%, draw 30%, Cruzeiro 38%10' · 0–0 · Gremio 32%, draw 30%, Cruzeiro 38%11' · 0–0 · Gremio 32%, draw 30%, Cruzeiro 38%12' · 0–0 · Gremio 32%, draw 30%, Cruzeiro 38%13' · 0–0 · Gremio 32%, draw 30%, Cruzeiro 38%14' · 0–0 · Gremio 32%, draw 30%, Cruzeiro 37%15' · 0–0 · Gremio 32%, draw 31%, Cruzeiro 37%16' · 0–0 · Gremio 32%, draw 31%, Cruzeiro 37%17' · 1–0 · Gremio 59%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 16%18' · 1–0 · Gremio 59%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 16%20' · 1–0 · Gremio 60%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 16%21' · 1–0 · Gremio 60%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 16%22' · 1–0 · Gremio 60%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 16%23' · 1–1 · Gremio 32%, draw 32%, Cruzeiro 37%24' · 1–1 · Gremio 31%, draw 32%, Cruzeiro 36%25' · 1–1 · Gremio 31%, draw 32%, Cruzeiro 36%26' · 1–1 · Gremio 31%, draw 32%, Cruzeiro 36%27' · 1–1 · Gremio 31%, draw 33%, Cruzeiro 36%28' · 1–1 · Gremio 31%, draw 33%, Cruzeiro 36%29' · 1–1 · Gremio 31%, draw 33%, Cruzeiro 36%30' · 1–1 · Gremio 31%, draw 33%, Cruzeiro 36%31' · 1–1 · Gremio 31%, draw 33%, Cruzeiro 36%32' · 1–1 · Gremio 31%, draw 34%, Cruzeiro 36%33' · 1–1 · Gremio 31%, draw 34%, Cruzeiro 35%34' · 1–1 · Gremio 31%, draw 34%, Cruzeiro 35%35' · 1–1 · Gremio 31%, draw 34%, Cruzeiro 35%36' · 1–1 · Gremio 31%, draw 35%, Cruzeiro 35%37' · 1–1 · Gremio 30%, draw 35%, Cruzeiro 35%38' · 1–1 · Gremio 30%, draw 35%, Cruzeiro 35%39' · 1–1 · Gremio 30%, draw 35%, Cruzeiro 35%40' · 1–1 · Gremio 30%, draw 36%, Cruzeiro 34%41' · 2–1 · Gremio 63%, draw 25%, Cruzeiro 12%43' · 2–1 · Gremio 63%, draw 25%, Cruzeiro 12%44' · 2–1 · Gremio 64%, draw 25%, Cruzeiro 12%45' · 2–1 · Gremio 64%, draw 25%, Cruzeiro 12%45+1' · 2–1 · Gremio 64%, draw 25%, Cruzeiro 11%45+2' · 2–1 · Gremio 64%, draw 25%, Cruzeiro 11%45+3' · 2–1 · Gremio 65%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 11%45+4' · 2–1 · Gremio 65%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 11%45+5' · 2–1 · Gremio 65%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 11%45+9' · 2–1 · Gremio 65%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 11%HT · 2–1 · Gremio 65%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 11%46' · 2–1 · Gremio 65%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 11%47' · 2–1 · Gremio 65%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 11%48' · 2–1 · Gremio 65%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 10%49' · 2–2 · Gremio 28%, draw 39%, Cruzeiro 32%50' · 2–2 · Gremio 28%, draw 40%, Cruzeiro 32%51' · 2–2 · Gremio 28%, draw 40%, Cruzeiro 32%52' · 2–2 · Gremio 28%, draw 41%, Cruzeiro 31%53' · 2–2 · Gremio 28%, draw 41%, Cruzeiro 31%54' · 2–2 · Gremio 27%, draw 42%, Cruzeiro 31%55' · 2–2 · Gremio 27%, draw 43%, Cruzeiro 30%56' · 2–2 · Gremio 27%, draw 43%, Cruzeiro 30%57' · 2–2 · Gremio 27%, draw 44%, Cruzeiro 30%58' · 2–2 · Gremio 26%, draw 44%, Cruzeiro 29%59' · 2–2 · Gremio 26%, draw 45%, Cruzeiro 29%60' · 2–2 · Gremio 26%, draw 46%, Cruzeiro 29%61' · 2–2 · Gremio 25%, draw 46%, Cruzeiro 28%62' · 2–3 · Gremio 7%, draw 23%, Cruzeiro 70%63' · 2–3 · Gremio 7%, draw 23%, Cruzeiro 70%64' · 2–3 · Gremio 7%, draw 23%, Cruzeiro 70%65' · 2–3 · Gremio 6%, draw 23%, Cruzeiro 71%66' · 2–3 · Gremio 6%, draw 23%, Cruzeiro 71%67' · 2–3 · Gremio 6%, draw 22%, Cruzeiro 72%68' · 2–3 · Gremio 6%, draw 22%, Cruzeiro 72%69' · 2–3 · Gremio 5%, draw 22%, Cruzeiro 73%70' · 2–3 · Gremio 5%, draw 22%, Cruzeiro 73%71' · 2–3 · Gremio 5%, draw 21%, Cruzeiro 74%72' · 2–3 · Gremio 5%, draw 21%, Cruzeiro 74%73' · 2–3 · Gremio 4%, draw 21%, Cruzeiro 75%74' · 2–3 · Gremio 4%, draw 20%, Cruzeiro 75%75' · 2–3 · Gremio 4%, draw 20%, Cruzeiro 76%76' · 2–3 · Gremio 2%, draw 13%, Cruzeiro 85%77' · 2–3 · Gremio 2%, draw 13%, Cruzeiro 86%78' · 2–3 · Gremio 1%, draw 13%, Cruzeiro 86%79' · 2–3 · Gremio 1%, draw 12%, Cruzeiro 86%80' · 2–3 · Gremio 1%, draw 12%, Cruzeiro 87%81' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 1%, Cruzeiro 99%82' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 1%, Cruzeiro 99%83' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 1%, Cruzeiro 99%84' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 1%, Cruzeiro 99%85' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 1%, Cruzeiro 99%86' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 0%, Cruzeiro 100%87' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 0%, Cruzeiro 100%88' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 0%, Cruzeiro 100%89' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 0%, Cruzeiro 100%90' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 0%, Cruzeiro 100%90+1' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 0%, Cruzeiro 100%90+2' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 0%, Cruzeiro 100%90+3' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 0%, Cruzeiro 100%90+4' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 0%, Cruzeiro 100%90+5' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 0%, Cruzeiro 100%90+6' · 2–4 · Gremio 0%, draw 0%, Cruzeiro 100%

Last reading, 90+6': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Cruzeiro 38% to win: they did.

  1. 17'Gremio:Carlos Vinícius 1944 −5 (pen.)
  2. 23'Cruzeiro:Kaio Jorge 2152 +30 assist Matheus Pereira 2111 +35
  3. 36'Gremio:Erick Noriega 1950 −9* for Danilo Barbosa da Silva 1886 −3
  4. 41'Gremio:Cristian Pavón 1924 −3
  5. 48'Cruzeiro:Kaio Jorge 2152 +30
  6. 61'Cruzeiro:Kaio Jorge 2152 +30 assist William 2021 +15
  7. 66'Gremio:Martin Braithwaite 1584 −7 for Filip Krovinović 1881 −3
  8. 66'Cruzeiro:Matheus Henrique 1974 +4 for Zé Lucas 1848 +22
  9. 67'Cruzeiro:João Marcelo 2085 +42
  10. 71'Cruzeiro:Matheus Pereira 2111 +35
  11. 73'Gremio:Walter Kannemann 1588 −7
  12. 73'Gremio:Walter Kannemann 1588 −7
  13. 76'Cruzeiro:Keny arroyo 2037 +15
  14. 79'Cruzeiro:Wesley Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira 1885 +8 for Keny arroyo 2037 +15
  15. 80'Cruzeiro:João Marcelo 2085 +42 assist Gerson 2119 +34
  16. 90'Gremio:José Enamorado 1850 −1 for Francis Amuzu 2017 −9
  17. 90'Gremio:Tetê 1902 0 for Cristian Pavón 1924 −3
  18. 90+2'Cruzeiro:Luciano Rodríguez 1858 0 for Kaio Jorge 2152 +30
  19. 90+2'Cruzeiro:Fabrício Bruno 2028 −2 for João Marcelo 2085 +42
  20. 90+2'Cruzeiro:Bruno Rodrigues 1912 −1 for Gerson 2119 +34

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-3-3Formations4-2-3-1
GWeverton1886−7
DDiego Caito18340
DGustavo Martins19140
DW. Kannemann1588−7
DMarlon1960−4
MM. Villasanti1905−2
MDanilo Barbosa1886−3
MF. Krovinović1881−3
FC. Pavón1924−3
FCarlos Vinícius1944−5
FF. Amuzu2017−9
CRenato Gaúcho2090−28
GOtávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa2036+51
DWilliam2021+15
DJoão Marcelo2085+42
DJonathan2083+15
DL. Villalba1974+10*
MZé Lucas1848+22
ML. Romero2064+11
MK. Arroyo2037+15
MMatheus Pereira2111+35
MGerson2119+34
FKaio Jorge2152+30
CArtur Jorge2102+26
Before kick-off: 33% · 29% · 38%(Gremio · draw · Cruzeiro)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–4 had 1%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Gremio €2.0M, Cruzeiro €4.4M.
  • Gremio were without 1 expected starter: Wallace (1717).
  • Cruzeiro were without 1 expected starter: L. Romero (2053).
  • Home advantage made Gremio the favourite: it added 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
  • Style contrast in pressing & duels (Série A): Gremio ranked #3 of 20, Cruzeiro #18.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Gremio

18th in Série A · 31 pts from 30

  • 11 OctDInternacional 1892
  • 7 OctDRemo 1884
  • 20 SepDPalmeiras 1907
  • 16 SepLBotafogo 1897
  • 12 SepLVasco Da Gama 1875

Cruzeiro

7th in Série A · 48 pts from 30

  • 13 OctLRB Bragantino 2009
  • 8 OctWSao Paulo 2013
  • 20 SepWVitoria 1980
  • 13 SepLSantos 2023
  • 6 SepWAtletico Paranaense 2016

Season outlook

From the Serie A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Gremio31 /3041.30%0%32%18th
Cruzeiro48 /3060.40%30%0%6th
Gremio
Cruzeiro

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Gustavo Martins
Gustavo Martins

Gremio · +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 1914

Gerson
Gerson

Cruzeiro · +8.0 (Elite) · Elo 2085

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Renato Portaluppi

Coach DNA: dribble-heavy

Artur Jorge Torres Gomes Araújo Amorim

Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Gremio: dribble-heavy (how Renato Portaluppi plays) · Cruzeiro: balanced profile (how Artur Jorge Torres Gomes Araújo Amorim plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.