Serie A · Regular Season - 35
Gremio vs Bahia
Thu 19 Nov 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre
Gremio host Bahia on Thu 19 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Gremio 46%, draw 28%, Bahia 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Gremio €2.2M, Bahia €3.2M.
- Home advantage makes Gremio the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Style contrast in possession (Série A): Gremio rank #18 of 20, Bahia #2.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Gremio goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Gremio 1921 · Bahia 1937
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Gremio · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1896
Bahia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 1979
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Gremio
18th in Série A · 37 pts from 34
- 4 NovLFlamengo Brazil Serie A1812
- 1 NovWAtletico-MG Brazil Copa do Brasil1948
- 30 OctWAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A1920
- 26 OctWCoritiba Brazil Serie A1906
- 18 OctLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1903
Bahia
6th in Série A · 53 pts from 33
- 29 OctWSao Paulo Brazil Serie A1925
- 25 OctDSantos Brazil Serie A1924
- 18 OctLFlamengo Brazil Serie A1931
- 11 OctWMirassol Brazil Serie A1908
- 9 OctLPalmeiras Brazil Serie A1943
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 37 /34 | 42.7 | 0% | 0% | 28% | 18th |
| Bahia | 53 /33 | 59.9 | 0% | 28% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Gremio: dribble-heavy (how Gaucho Renato plays) · Bahia: possession-based (how Rogério Ceni plays)