Bundesliga · Regular Season - 11
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 18:30 UTC · Merkur-Arena, Graz
Grazer AK host TSV Hartberg on Fri 30 Oct 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Grazer AK 39%, draw 29%, TSV Hartberg 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Grazer AK €524K, TSV Hartberg €867K.
- Home advantage makes Grazer AK the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Grazer AK goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Grazer AK 1680 · TSV Hartberg 1711
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Grazer AK · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1740
TSV Hartberg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1902
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Grazer AK
8th in Bundesliga · 9 pts from 9
- 18 OctLSturm Graz Austrian Bundesliga1694
- 10 OctDRed Bull Salzburg Austrian Bundesliga1695
- 19 SepDAustria Vienna Austrian Bundesliga1703
- 12 SepWSCR Altach Austrian Bundesliga1630
- 29 AugDWolfsberger AC Austrian Bundesliga1670
TSV Hartberg
7th in Bundesliga · 11 pts from 9
- 16 OctLRapid Vienna Austrian Bundesliga1709
- 11 OctWAustria Lustenau Austrian Bundesliga1698
- 20 SepDLask Linz Austrian Bundesliga1718
- 13 SepDWSG Wattens Austrian Bundesliga1726
- 30 AugWRied Austrian Bundesliga1713
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grazer AK | 9 /9 | 25.9 | 0% | 2% | 22% | 7th |
| TSV Hartberg | 11 /9 | 28.8 | 0% | 5% | 7% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Grazer AK: direct (how Gerald Scheiblehner plays) · TSV Hartberg: balanced profile (how Markus Schopp plays)