Bundesliga · Regular Season - 13
Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 18:30 UTC · Merkur-Arena, Graz
Grazer AK host Rapid Vienna on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Grazer AK 27%, draw 28%, Rapid Vienna 45%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Grazer AK €552K, Rapid Vienna €1.4M.
- Bundesliga: N. Hedl is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1986).
- Style contrast in discipline (Bundesliga): Grazer AK rank #11 of 12, Rapid Vienna #3.
- Rapid Vienna's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.4 over 180 days.
- Rapid Vienna have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Grazer AK goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–29%
- 0–18%
- 2–27%
- 0–27%
- 2–17%
- Other scores49%
Team Elo: Grazer AK 1671 · Rapid Vienna 1866
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Grazer AK · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1727
Rapid Vienna · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.2 (Elite) · Elo 1995
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Grazer AK
10th in Bundesliga · 10 pts from 12
- 7 NovLAustria Lustenau Austrian Bundesliga1689
- 30 OctLTSV Hartberg Austrian Bundesliga1672
- 24 OctDWSG Wattens Austrian Bundesliga1663
- 18 OctLSturm Graz Austrian Bundesliga1689
- 10 OctDRed Bull Salzburg Austrian Bundesliga1690
Rapid Vienna
1st in Bundesliga · 33 pts from 12
- 6 NovWWolfsberger AC Austrian Bundesliga1896
- 1 NovWAustria Vienna Austrian Bundesliga1906
- 24 OctWAustria Lustenau Austrian Bundesliga1894
- 16 OctWTSV Hartberg Austrian Bundesliga1877
- 11 OctWLask Linz Austrian Bundesliga1847
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grazer AK | 10 /12 | 22.4 | 0% | <1% | 35% | 8th |
| Rapid Vienna | 33 /12 | 49.7 | 47% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Grazer AK: direct (how Gerald Scheiblehner plays) · Rapid Vienna: balanced profile (how J. Thorup plays)