Veikkausliiga · Championship Group - 32
Gnistan vs VPS
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Markku.fi Areena, Helsinki
Gnistan host VPS on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Veikkausliiga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Gnistan 40%, draw 29%, VPS 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Gnistan €179K, VPS €176K.
- Home advantage makes Gnistan the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
- Gnistan's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Gnistan goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Gnistan 1412 · VPS 1444
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Gnistan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1470
VPS · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1510
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Gnistan
4th in Veikkausliiga · 36 pts from 22
- 17 OctLHJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga1411
- 12 OctLVPS Finland Veikkausliiga1393
- 7 OctDInter Turku Finland Veikkausliiga1434
- 18 SepDHJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga1367
- 12 SepWAC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga1400
VPS
6th in Veikkausliiga · 33 pts from 22
- 18 OctLKuPS Finland Veikkausliiga1433
- 12 OctWGnistan Finland Veikkausliiga1393
- 8 OctLHJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga1427
- 19 SepLKuPS Finland Veikkausliiga1476
- 14 SepLInter Turku Finland Veikkausliiga1499
Season outlook
From the Veikkausliiga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gnistan | 42 /28 | 46.9 | 0% | 64% | 0% | 4th |
| VPS | 39 /28 | 44.1 | 0% | 18% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 13th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Gnistan: direct (how Jussi Leppälahti plays) · VPS: balanced profile (how J. Nuorela plays)